530
FXUS63 KMKX 261518 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 30 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS MAY
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY, AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S SATURDAY.
- MARCH LOOKS TO GO OUT LIKE A LION, WITH A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1018 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH PARTS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH SOME 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAY SEE
A FEW MORE OF THESE OCCUR, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DEEP MIXING
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE WEST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LINGERING
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S WELL
INLAND, WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE PRESENT ON RADAR AT THIS TIME IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TO CENTRAL WI, BUT THESE RETURNS AREN'T REACHING THE
GROUND AMID DRY LOW LEVELS. ANY REMAINING AREAS OF PRECIP
SHOULD SHRINK HEADING TOWARD DAWN.
TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZES TO 25MPH MAY OCCUR WEST OF MADISON,
WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE, WHICH WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S, WHILE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL BE
COOLER, OWING TO A LAKE BREEZE FORMING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A BROAD AREA OF 850 TO 700MB WAA WILL MAKE A SOUTHEAST SWIPE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK LIFT
TO SUPPORT SCT'D RAIN SHOWERS (TEMP PROFILES OMIT SNOW CHANCES
AT THIS TIME). WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHWEST WI, MESO GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HREF, HRRR, AND RAP
FEATURE RAIN A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST, BRINGING CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. INSTEAD OF BITING ON ONE
SOLUTION WITH LIKELIES, HAVE BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A
BROAD AREA OF 30 TO 45% POPS FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN LOOKS CLOUDY BUT DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN,
SPURRED ON BY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT AND THEN PARK AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN AN ARC FROM
THE TWIN CITIES TO THE FOX RIVER VALLEY. THIS POSITION WILL PUT
US IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS/RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
OVERHEAD, BUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND
POTENTIALLY SUNNY. THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE SFC
WARM AIR NORTH, AND WE MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT, WAA OVER THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER
NORTHERN WI AND THE UP, CAUSING COOLING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OVER THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH A BIT AND
STEADY RAIN MAY START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR
CWA SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWERY PRECIP SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN TRACK ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, CREATING A CONSOLIDATED AREA OF RAIN THAT WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WI. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF WISCONSIN, WRAPPING COLD AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, CAUSING ANY REMAINING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
AT THIS TIME, NO SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
AS WE'LL LARGELY MISS OUT ON THE BEST MUCAPE AND BULK SHEAR AS
THESE INGREDIENTS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH THE FRONT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR WILL RETURN SUNDAY, BUT
SUNDAY'S SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO SATURATED TO SUPPORT NECESSARY LAPSE
RATES/CAPE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1018 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA,
BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO THEIR ISOLATED NATURE.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP IN
THE 6000 TO 8000 FOOT AGL LEVEL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD VEER TO THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON INLAND, WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS LINGERING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH WINDS SLOWLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 1018 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL MEANDER OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE LAKE AND WASH OUT ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING SOUTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE, AND NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. WINDS WILL THEN
COME AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
LOCALLY, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
HIGH ONSHORE WAVES RETURN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
FRIDAY.
CMILLER/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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