131
FXUS63 KMKX 270307
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AND STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY, AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A FORECAST UPDATE (TO BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY) WILL DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHWESTERN WI OVERNIGHT (ROUGHLY 3
HOURS OR SO) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND MID THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN 15
TO 45%, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT / FRIDAY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DRIVEN BY
WAA. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE SHOWERS / WEAK STORMS
WILL ARRIVE A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE CLEAR OF THE AREA MID FRIDAY MORNING.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT, WITH SOME 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. KEPT THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT POPS FOR NOW FOR THESE SHOWERS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ALL RAIN SHOWERS.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED, COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
MORE FOCUSED AND DEEPER WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS
IN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, STALLING
OUT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE SHOULD
BE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, EVEN NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE COOLER WITH MORE
CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BEFORE SPREADING
BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
BRING IN PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER POPS (INTO THE 60 PERCENT OR
HIGHER RANGE BY SATURDAY) AS A RESULT.
SPC HAS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS, WHICH APPEARS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN THAT AREA. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME HAIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA.
ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN, WITH THE GEFS
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE EPS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THIS
TRACK WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THE
LOW TRACK, AND WE WILL SEE IF THIS TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE ENSEMBLES IN LATER FORECASTS. A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
MID TO HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS MAINTAIN OVERCAST COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT (AROUND 10 KFT). CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TOWARDS 4 TO
5 KFT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN VFR. 15 TO 40%
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AND WEST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE LAKE AND WASH OUT ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING SOUTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE, AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. WINDS
WILL THEN COME AROUND TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND BECOME BREEZY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY, STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND IT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
ARE THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND
29.5 INCHES PASSES NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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