765
FXUS63 KMKX 270940
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
440 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME
COULD CONTAIN HAIL.
- A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AND STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY, AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AREAS OF RAIN ARE ONCE AGAIN LOSING OUT TO SURFACE DRY AIR, AND
COVERAGE HAS DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SLUG
OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN EXISTS CLOSER TO MINNEAPOLIS WITH SURFACE
REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF
RAIN DYING AS IT HEADS INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, CONFIDENCE IS
FADING THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT. FOR NOW, AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY JUST REMAIN GLORIFIED VIRGA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. WILL BE WALKING BACK POPS WITH SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES.
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PASSES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WITH BREEZES TO 20 MPH. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME UPPER 50S HIGHS IN THE
WI RIVER VALLEY AND BARABOO HILLS.
TONIGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE NOSE OF A MODEST 40 TO 50KT 850MB JET,
WITH RAIN/STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. THESE
STORMS WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY, GENERALLY LOSING THEIR OOMPH BY DAYBREAK AS THEY HEAD
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE LLJ WANES IN STRENGTH. HRRR AND NAM
3KM SOUNDINGS DEPICT THESE ELEVATED STORMS BEING ROOTED AT THE
850 TO 800MB LEVEL, WITH A MODEST LEVEL OF MUCAPE BEING REALIZED
(~1000 TO 1300 J/KG). 850 TO 500MB LAPSE RATES IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 7 C/KM AMID EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30
KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SOME SOUNDING ANALOGS SUGGEST SMALL HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN AND STORMS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RACES NORTH FRIDAY AFTER
DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT PARKS JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA AND SKIES CLEAR. THE WARM TEMPS WILL COME WITH A
FAMILIAR FRIEND THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THINGS WILL
EXACTLY EVOLVE ON SATURDAY, BUT EARLY SATURDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A WASHOUT FOR EVERYONE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME. MODELS
DEPICT THE STATIONARY FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY OR EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERY RAIN THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S BY MIDDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94, WHILE
AREAS NORTH MAY END UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN IOWA WILL DRIVE A NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE LAKE, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRASH INTO THE 40S BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO INCREASE AS WELL, AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAUSES A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIFT. RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND SLIDES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP INTO
CENTRAL WI, WITH A SLOW SOUTHEAST TRANSITION FROM RAIN, TO MIX,
TO SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BEYOND, COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER STRONG SPRING SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
DRY LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. AREAS
OF RAIN CONTINUE TO GROW SPOTTY THIS MORNING AMID THE DRYNESS,
AND ITS LOOKING LIKE AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON MAY HAVE THE
BEST SHOT TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO, WHILE MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.
TODAY VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SOME BREAKS DEVELOP BY
THE MID AFTERNOON AND THEN CEILINGS DISAPPEAR BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MODEST BREEZES
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
TONIGHT, CEILINGS RETURN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SPREADING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND AND AFTER 06Z AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE
APPALACHIA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
AFTER DAWN WITH SOME BREEZINESS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY MIDDAY, AND THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE LAKE, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSOLVE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE COME
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY EVERYWHERE OVER THE LAKE.
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE LAKE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES TAKING HOLD BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AT THIS TIME,
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED, AS A STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION MAY
PROHIBIT MORE ENHANCED MIXING.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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