934
FXUS63 KMKX 271536
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1036 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME
COULD CONTAIN HAIL.
- A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AND STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY, AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SOME DRIZZLE AND EVEN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS A LITTLE BIT OF FGEN IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAS
BEEN ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT JUST ENOUGH PRECIP TO MAKE IT THROUGH
THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT
SHOWER WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA A
BUT LONGER WITH SOME WAA AND FGEN LINGERING A BIT LONGER.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL STILL FACE THE ISSUES WITH THE DRIER SURFACE
WHICH MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE.
INTO THE THIS EVENING AND INCREASING LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL NUDGE INTO THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOOKS LIKE TO BE ENOUGH TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING DEVELOPING
STORMS TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH OMEGA
IN THE 850-700MB RANGE TO BRING ELEVATED STORM POTENTIAL. THE
STRONG MIDLEVEL WAA WILL PREVENT ANYTHING SURFACE BASED.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE VERY GOOD LATER THIS EVENING (7-8
C/KM) AND THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
MOVING IN WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. THUS, WE COULD EASILY SEE A FEW STORMS
PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE
SEVERE HAIL, ESPECIALLY WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY COLUMN
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. WE WILL CERTAINLY BE
WATCHING THIS POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING AS WE GET A BETTER
IDEA OF EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AREAS OF RAIN ARE ONCE AGAIN LOSING OUT TO SURFACE DRY AIR, AND
COVERAGE HAS DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SLUG
OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN EXISTS CLOSER TO MINNEAPOLIS WITH SURFACE
REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF
RAIN DYING AS IT HEADS INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, CONFIDENCE IS
FADING THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT. FOR NOW, AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY JUST REMAIN GLORIFIED VIRGA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. WILL BE WALKING BACK POPS WITH SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES.
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PASSES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WITH BREEZES TO 20 MPH. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME UPPER 50S HIGHS IN THE
WI RIVER VALLEY AND BARABOO HILLS.
TONIGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE NOSE OF A MODEST 40 TO 50KT 850MB JET,
WITH RAIN/STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. THESE
STORMS WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY, GENERALLY LOSING THEIR OOMPH BY DAYBREAK AS THEY HEAD
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE LLJ WANES IN STRENGTH. HRRR AND NAM
3KM SOUNDINGS DEPICT THESE ELEVATED STORMS BEING ROOTED AT THE
850 TO 800MB LEVEL, WITH A MODEST LEVEL OF MUCAPE BEING REALIZED
(~1000 TO 1300 J/KG). 850 TO 500MB LAPSE RATES IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 7 C/KM AMID EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30
KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SOME SOUNDING ANALOGS SUGGEST SMALL HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN AND STORMS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RACES NORTH FRIDAY AFTER
DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT PARKS JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA AND SKIES CLEAR. THE WARM TEMPS WILL COME WITH A
FAMILIAR FRIEND THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THINGS WILL
EXACTLY EVOLVE ON SATURDAY, BUT EARLY SATURDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A WASHOUT FOR EVERYONE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME. MODELS
DEPICT THE STATIONARY FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY OR EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERY RAIN THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S BY MIDDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94, WHILE
AREAS NORTH MAY END UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN IOWA WILL DRIVE A NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE LAKE, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRASH INTO THE 40S BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO INCREASE AS WELL, AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAUSES A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIFT. RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND SLIDES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP INTO
CENTRAL WI, WITH A SLOW SOUTHEAST TRANSITION FROM RAIN, TO MIX,
TO SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BEYOND, COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER STRONG SPRING SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A LITTLE DRIZZLE THIS MORNING IN SPOTS THAT COULD LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WI BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE IS PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REACHING THE SURFACE. MID
LEVEL CIGS WITH NO PRECIP IMPACTS TO VSBYS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THIS EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BY LATE EVENING WE MAY START TO
SEE INCREASED CHANGES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS TAKE STORMS
CHANCES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, KEEPING THEM LARGELY
RESTRICTED TO SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER, IN SOUTHWEST WI MODELS
INDICATE SOME RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE ONLY RISK
REALLY BEING LARGE HAIL THOUGH SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS HIT WITH A STRONGER STORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TOWARD SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO FRIDAY. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WI, WITH A FAIRLY SHARP WIND SHIFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LARGELY DRY AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEEING SOME CLEAR SKIES.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE
APPALACHIA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
AFTER DAWN WITH SOME BREEZINESS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY MIDDAY, AND THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE LAKE, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSOLVE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE COME
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY EVERYWHERE OVER THE LAKE.
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE LAKE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES TAKING HOLD BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AT THIS TIME,
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED, AS A STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION MAY
PROHIBIT MORE ENHANCED MIXING.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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