569
FXUS63 KMKX 280310
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1010 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (50-80%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME
COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL, POSSIBLY.
- HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY, AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH COLDER AIR ALLOWING
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX
IN WITH THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
DELAYING THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A HOUR OR
TWO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND
WIND OF LOW-LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY BREAK. NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z CAMS
PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO, BUT WITH VARYING DEGREE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS KS AND MO, IT LOOKS THAT THE 00Z ARW HAS THE BETTER
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AT THE MOMENT AND HAVE LEANED A BIT MORE
ON IT FOR TIMING. HOWEVER, IT DOES LEAN TOWARD NOT AS MUCH
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT AS THE THE 00Z HRRR. NEVERTHELESS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1200 J/KG
PAIRING WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8C/KM). THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TALLER, YET ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AS THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
INTO THIS EVENING AN INCREASING LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL
NUDGE INTO THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND LOOKS
LIKELY (70%) TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING DEVELOPING STORMS TO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
BE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH OMEGA IN THE 850-700MB RANGE TO BRING ELEVATED STORM
POTENTIAL (60%). THE STRONG MIDLEVEL WAA WILL PREVENT ANYTHING
SURFACE BASED. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE VERY GOOD LATER THIS
EVENING (7-8 C/KM) AND THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MUCAPE FROM
500-1200 J/KG MOVING IN WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION,
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. THUS, WE COULD
EASILY SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL, ESPECIALLY WITH MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. WE
WILL CERTAINLY BE WATCHING THIS POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING AS
WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PUSH OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY MID
MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH IN BEHIND IT. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND PUSHES ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
AND GIVEN THE CONDITIONS INCREASED MIXING AS WE START TO WARM
UP. WITH THE LLJ SLIDING NORTH WE SHOULD EXPECT TO MIX DOWN SOME
VERY BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE, HIGHEST GUSTS
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A WIND
ADVISORY BUT WINDS WOULD HAVE TO OVERPERFORM A BIT AND IN A WAA
REGIME THAT TENDS TO BE LESS LIKELY. PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY SEEM
FAIRLY LIMITED (20-30%) WITH MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
STORMS HAVING SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THE LATEST MODEL
DATA.
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIP (30-40%) WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BUT CAMS SHOW THIS TO BE FAIRLY
UNLIKELY.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TOWARD LAKE HURON
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, CONCURRENTLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GLOBAL FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA, RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ULTIMATELY PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INCREASING
LIFT AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSING DISTURBANCE, PROGRESSING
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD LAKE HURON SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW SUNDAY EVENING, FUNNELING COLDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE ARRIVAL OF SAID COLDER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION SUNDAY EVENING & NIGHT. SOME SLEET & FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD MIX IN WITH THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS BY MID-WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON: INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WAA & MID-LEVEL DPVA WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK (~500 J/KG OR
LESS) MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH JUSTIFIES CONTINUED THUNDER
MENTIONS IN THIS FORECAST. RAIN & THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH & PASSAGE OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THE NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT OF THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH RANGES ANYWHERE FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE WI-IL STATE LINE IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES.
LOCATIONS THAT DO END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
STORMS, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES MAKING IT TOO
DIFFICULT TO SPECULATE ON ANY STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING UPDATES.
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME SLEET & FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX
IN WITH THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. ENSEMBLE P-TYPE
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE CHANGEOVER WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY/COLDER SURFACE LOW TRACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON (PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH) LEAVES SOME ROOM FOR AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TIME ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS IN LOW
TRACK IN THE COMING FORECASTS. PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL FORECASTS
SUGGEST MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (~40-60% CHANCES
OF 0.1"+), WITH 1.0"+ PROBS COMING IN CONSIDERABLY LOWER.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
WIDESPREAD 3-6 KFT CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING, BUT A THERE ARE FEW MVFR POCKETS WITH CEILINGS LOWER
THAN 3 KFT. HOWEVER EXPECTING CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVEL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 07Z-09Z IN SOUTHWEST WI AND SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AND PUSHING EAST SOMETIME AFTER
13-15Z. WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOP, CAN
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE SHOWER. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS (0.8-3KFT) LOOK TO LINGER EVEN BEHIND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY, BUT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP BEHIND THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND GUST TO
20-25KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US TONIGHT WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE FRONT STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS THROUGH, WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING DOMINANT SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSOLVE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE COME
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY EVERYWHERE OVER THE LAKE.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN POSSIBLY SATURDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
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