094
FXUS63 KMKX 280912
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
412 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (50-80%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
STORMS COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.
- HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S TODAY, AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
- PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH COLDER AIR ALLOWING
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX
IN WITH THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
WARM AIR ADVECTION, A LLJ AND AND BROUGHT BLOSSOMING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LLJ
INCREASED OVER THE CENTRAL US EARLIER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
TO PULL MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG MID LEVEL WAA HAS
BROUGHT A SATURATED AIR COLUMN AND FORCING OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
GET SOME THUNDER AND A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED ALL OF THE FORCING AND
OMEGA IS CONCENTRATED IN THE MID LEVELS AROUND 850 TO 700 MB.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 TO 8 C/KM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
IS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST
THERE JUST IS NOT SUPPORT FOR AN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THUS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS REMAINING ELEVATED AND POSING A
SMALL HAIL THREAT FOR THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE EXITING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LAKE SHORE AREAS
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN) CAN EXPECT SHOWERS
TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING RUSH.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND WITH IT
THE LLJ WILL MOVE NORTH WITH IT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. WITH
MOISTURE FOLLOWING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
INCREASED MIXING WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE LLJ, SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE. THAT BEING SAID MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN COULD SEE INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING A SMALL
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL WINDOW IN QUESTION WOULD BE ON
THE ORDER OF 1-2 HRS LONG STARTING AROUND 1-2 PM. IN BOTH
INSTANCES WERE COMING UP SHY OF THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
IF YOU HAVE AN LOOSE OBJECTS THAT CAN GET EASILY BLOWN AROUND
LIKE AN EMPTY GARBAGE CAN, OR PLASTIC CHAIRS, SECURING THOSE
TYPES OF ITEMS MIGHT BE BENEFICIAL.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNS TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE EASTERLY
CROSSING CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
POPS INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND
30-40% FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE BEST OF THE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE, IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC FRONT
STALLS OUT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE
STATE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHICH PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A STALLED
SFC FRONT. AKA A GREAT CHANCE FOR INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL AND
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HEADING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS INCREASE TO 60 TO 80% (OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER) ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES COULD VERY DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINES UP WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE
TO THE NORTH WITH MUCH WARM TO THE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
FLUCTUATION HERE, BUT LOOKING AT WHERE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY TO FALL, WI/IL BORDER COUNTIES COULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE, OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES HAS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. POPS ACTUALLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE TO AROUND 80% OR HIGHER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED POPS IS DUE TO A
SECOND AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD LAKE HURON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE TRACK FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE EVERYONE WILL BE SEEING
PRECIPITATION REGARDLESS OF THIS ROUGHLY 80 MILE DIFFERENCE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THOSE THAT ARE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE
THERE IS MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THAT BEING SAID THE WHILE PINNING DOWN A
SPECIFIC AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS FOR SUNDAY IS DIFFICULT, THE
MAIN HAZARDS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE LARGELY SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WHICH HAS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS FAR NORTH
WERE JUST LACKING SOME OF THE NEEDED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN WHAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE GOOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
TIME FRAME FOR ANY FURTHER SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN SUNDAY EVENING WHICH
BRINGS SOME SMALL CHANCES (15% OR LESS) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. THIS TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS STILL TRYING TO HIT AT
THE CHANGE OVER OCCURING A BIT EARLIER, BUT THAT AGAIN WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE.
SHOULD THE LOW PASS FURTHER SOUTH, WE COULD SEE COLD AIR BEGIN
TO WORK IN SOONER AND PROLONG THE PERIOD FOR SNOWFALL. STUCK
AROUND THE AVERAGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
WHICH HAS THE TRANSITION OCCURING LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BRIGHT SIDE IS WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES PRIOR AND THE THAWED GROUNDS ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VERY MINOR ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES AROUND 40%
FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE (0.1) WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS AROUND
3 TO 5 KFT ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 3 TO 4 SM IN THE MODERATE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS AS WELL. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH MANY WESTERN TERMINALS SEEING PRECIP AND THUNDER
NOW AT 9 Z. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING EASTERN
LAKESHORE TERMINALS AROUND 11 TO 12Z BASED ON THERE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. THE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AROUND 13 TO 14Z THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. MVFR
CEILINGS COULD LINGER BEHIND THESE STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLEAR.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PICK
UP WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID MORNING HOURS OUTSIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH (30 KT) WILL BE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN AND ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS THIS LOW PUSHES EAST, BUT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING
THE TODAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO THE
MID LAKE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND THE STALLED
WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE WILL SEE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHERN THIRD MAY BE MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIME TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEAR SHORE ZONES. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
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