581
FXUS63 KMKX 290236
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (30 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES) TONIGHT AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER, A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL.
- PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH COLDER AIR
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT.
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 937 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WARM FRONT
STALLED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH SIDE OF THE CWA. AREAS LIKE FOND DU
LAC AND SHEBOYGAN ARE SITTING IN THE LOW 40S WHILE AREAS SOUTH
ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND 70S. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS A BIT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, SOME
00Z CAMS HINT AT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CLIPPING THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING AT A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AREAS NORTH OF I-94 WILL SEE
SCATTERED CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED INTO AND BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-70S ARE WIDESPREAD, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A FILLING REMNANT OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES ALONG IT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY MORNING, AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AND BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MORE OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, POTENTIALLY NUDGING UP INTO THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WHILE AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN AND
ILLINOIS BORDER REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION BAND.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, THE STATIONARY
FRONT TRANSITIONS BACK INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN, PUTTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A DRY SLOT FEATURE PUSHING IN FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.
SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE MID-50S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S TO
THE SOUTH AS OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL. EXPECTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY TO ISOLATED SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST DURING THE MIDDAY TO
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STORMS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER SEEING
POTENTIAL TO BECOME BRIEFLY STRONG AND PRODUCE HAIL AND PERHAPS
GUSTY WINDS.
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN, EXPECT A TRANSITION
IN THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING, BUT
ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL, BUT COULD SEE
A FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY SURFACES UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD END MONDAY MORNING, AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SATURATED AIR
COLUMNS AND A RESULTANT HIGH POTENTIAL (70 PERCENT PLUS) FOR
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY
RAIN WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY HAVE THE LOW TRACK OVER
OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK. LATER FORECASTS
HOPEFULLY WILL PROVIDE SOME MORE CERTAINTY WITH THE LOW TRACK AND
ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MILDER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MAY BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
AREA.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 937 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
STALLED WARM FRONT SITS ACROSS CENTRAL WI COUNTIES THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SBM.
HOWEVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO SEE PREVAILING
VFR CEILINGS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. LLWS REMAINS A
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL JET WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. EXPECTING
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN INTO SATURDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD. AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD, EXPECT LOWER MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH IT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASE
SHOWERS CHANCES ALONG WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND THE HALFWAY POINT OF THE OPEN WATERS,
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THESE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN SINK SOUTHWARD
SLOWLY ON SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE ON SATURDAY, LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW PRESSURE THEN LIFTS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, WITH PREVAILING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM
SATURDAY.
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