253
FXUS63 KMKX 290918
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
418 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCES) THIS MORNING AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY, SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER, A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL.
- PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH COLDER AIR
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT.
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SIGNALED THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY SAG
FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
SLOWED DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THUS
POPS ARE BETWEEN 10 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH RUSH HOUR THIS MORNING
FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 94 WILL REMAIN
DRY DURING THIS TIME AS THE BETTER LIFT AND FORCING ARE TO THE
NORTH. THERE ARE BETTER SIGNALS FOR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN (GIVING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ITS FIRST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP FOR THE DAY). WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, A WING OF WAA WILL PROVIDE
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND IOWA. THIS AREA OF WAA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CAUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL ALSO BE A WIDE TEMPERATURES
DIFFERENCES FROM FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST EVENING THERE COULD BE A 20 TO 30
DEGREE TEMPERATURE SWING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS. CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO TO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
40S WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
ALL THE WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND APPROACHES
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO A WARM FRONT AND BEGIN PROGRESSING NORTH
AGAIN. THEREFORE, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE BACK IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH INCREASING LIFT AND INSTABILITY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THESE FEATURES MOVE.
THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE RAINFALL ACTIVITY
OR STOP IT ALL TOGETHER. CAMS HAVE BEEN TORN ON COMPLETELY
REMOVING SHOWERS/STORMS AND JUST REDUCING THE COVERAGE. THE SIZE
AND STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE THE FEATURES TO KEEP AN EYE
ON FOR THIS. LOWERED POPS DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THE
LOWERING COVERAGE, BUT DIDN'T COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE MID DAY TO EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE COULD BE
A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. OVERALL NOT SUPER IMPRESSED WITH THE SET UP WITH LIMITED
CAPE, AND A LACK OF ORGANIZATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH WARM MOIST AIR
WE ARE ABLE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THIS
WILL BE MADE HARDER DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE ARE UNLIKELY TO
CLEAR OUT SUNDAY. SO WHILE I CAN'T RULE IT OUT, ITS NOT
SOMETHING THAT SHOULD WARRANT CHANGING PLANS.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES DIP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW AGAIN, RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASING PROVIDED A SIGNAL FOR SOME SLEET
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DECREASE. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EVEN SOME
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. THANKFULLY, NEITHER FREEZING RAIN
NOR SLEET IS EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND THAWED
GROUNDS WILL ADD TO THE MELTING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND SLEET. SO
WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOWFALL. ANY HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS THAT DO OCCUR COULD
BRING TRACE AMOUNTS ON GRASSY SURFACES. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING
TO MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LAST OF THE SNOWFALL AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL HAVE EXITED THE STATE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE WISCONSIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUS EXPECT THE DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND FOR A
A COUPLE DAYS.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF AN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. GUIDANCE HAS A
STRONG SIGNAL (75% CHANCE) FOR THE RETURN OF WARM AND MOISTURE
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
(OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES) COULD AGAIN SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX AS TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLOWER TO RISE THAN THE
APPROACHING PRECIPITATION FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S. THUS IS WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO RAIN FOR
EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THUS UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S REMAIN FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. WHILE MOST AREAS ARE VFR THERE ARE POCKETS OF LOWER
CLOUD DECKS BOTH AROUND 3 KFT AND ALSO 500 TO 900 FEET. IFR HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY CONTAINED TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AND STORMS EXISTS. THIS IS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS TO ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LLWS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH, WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND
CHANGING DIRECTION. EARLY THIS MORNING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES.
TERMINALS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY HAVE WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TERMINALS
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE WINDS TURN TO NORTHEASTERLY BY MID
TO LATE MORNING IF THEY HAVN'T ALREADY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MORE
BEFORE STALLING AGAIN, SO TERMINALS ALONG THE 94 CORRIDOR COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST NORTH EAST WHILE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND THE HALFWAY POINT OF THE OPEN
WATERS, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN SINK SOUTHWARD
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH TODAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT GALES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS
COULD BECOME VARIABLE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TODAY, LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW PRESSURE THEN LIFTS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, WITH PREVAILING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM
SATURDAY.
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