391
FXUS63 KMKX 292012
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED BOLT OF LIGHTING THIS
EVENING, WITH LIGHTNING CHANCES DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVES
EASTWARD.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER, A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST.
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD AIRMASS HAS WON OUT OVER THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM
IOWA, BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EVEN
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MINIMAL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS SHORTWAVE IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST DURING DIURNAL HEATING HOURS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THUNDER/LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEGREES, FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
AROUND 3 KM, AND BULK 0 TO 3 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND ICE PRODUCTION IN STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, IF TODAY'S LAKE INFLUENCE IS ANY INDICATOR OF SUNDAY, A
SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PREVENT CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING SURFACE BASED, AND WOULD ALSO PRECLUDE ANY LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY FROM DEVELOPING. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR TORNADOES
AND WIND TO NEARLY ZERO, ALTHOUGH IF A POCKET OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING, WITH WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS
AFTERWARDS. THESE SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND BRING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GENERALLY
EXPECTING A TRANSITION STRAIGHT FROM RAIN TO SNOW, BUT MAY SEE A
BRIEF (1-2 HOUR) PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY
IN EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE WARM NOSE REACHES FARTHEST
NORTH. EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WITH TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SATURATED AIR
COLUMNS AND A RESULTANT HIGH POTENTIAL (80 PERCENT PLUS) FOR
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES HAVE
SOME POTENTIAL (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL. IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS GENERALLY DEPICTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS LOW TRACK. IF THIS TRACK DOES OCCUR, THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO PUSH IN.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
WELL, HIGHEST IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
WIND SHEAR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS QUITE STRONG, GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OVERALL SYSTEM. FOR NOW,
ADDED IN SOME THUNDER CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) INTO MOST OF THE
AREA, HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AREAS. SPC HAS A 15 PERCENT
SEVERE RISK CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS ON DAY
5/WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM
AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER EVOLVES.
THE DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. BREEZY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MAY BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE AREA. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXITS WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, SO LEFT SMALL POPS (20 TO 30
PERCENT) FROM THE NBM AS IS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND BRINGING IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS
BORDER, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT
DOMINATING. NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING ALONG A SHORTWAVE PRECEDING
LOW PRESSURE. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME VARIABLE IN MOST REGIONS, AND STIFF AND
SOUTHWESTERLY IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEREAFTER. EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A FRONT IS LOCATED AT THE MIDWAY POINT OF THE OPEN WATERS,
REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT SAGGING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND SOUTH
AT TIMES. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY,
WITH WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY. NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE AND NORTHWARD ARE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN
DOMINATE THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE POSSIBLE.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page