688
FXUS63 KMKX 300307
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS NORTH OF A WISCONSIN DELLS TO
FOND DU LAC LINE MAY OBSERVE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A GLAZE OF
ICE ON SURFACES AS LIQUID PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
- SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINSHOWERS ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. OFF
AND ON RAIN WITH WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A LULL POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
- NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
TO EAST MID SUNDAY / EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
RECENTLY ISSUED AN SPS FOR MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIN GLAZE OF ICE AS LIGHT RAIN /
DRIZZLE CONTINUES AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING, AND MAY EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED ABOUT 2 COUNTIES SOUTH
OF THE WI-IL BORDERLINE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT, PROGRESSING 1 OR 2 COUNTIES NORTH OF THE BORDER BY
MID SUNDAY MORNING. EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY REACHES
WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN SUNDAY'S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, EXPECTATIONS REMAIN AS STATED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD AIRMASS HAS WON OUT OVER THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM
IOWA, BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EVEN
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MINIMAL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS SHORTWAVE IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST DURING DIURNAL HEATING HOURS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THUNDER/LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEGREES, FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
AROUND 3 KM, AND BULK 0 TO 3 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND ICE PRODUCTION IN STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, IF TODAY'S LAKE INFLUENCE IS ANY INDICATOR OF SUNDAY, A
SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PREVENT CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING SURFACE BASED, AND WOULD ALSO PRECLUDE ANY LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY FROM DEVELOPING. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR TORNADOES
AND WIND TO NEARLY ZERO, ALTHOUGH IF A POCKET OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING, WITH WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS
AFTERWARDS. THESE SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND BRING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GENERALLY
EXPECTING A TRANSITION STRAIGHT FROM RAIN TO SNOW, BUT MAY SEE A
BRIEF (1-2 HOUR) PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY
IN EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE WARM NOSE REACHES FARTHEST
NORTH. EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WITH TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SATURATED AIR
COLUMNS AND A RESULTANT HIGH POTENTIAL (80 PERCENT PLUS) FOR
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES HAVE
SOME POTENTIAL (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL. IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS GENERALLY DEPICTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS LOW TRACK. IF THIS TRACK DOES OCCUR, THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO PUSH IN.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
WELL, HIGHEST IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
WIND SHEAR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS QUITE STRONG, GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OVERALL SYSTEM. FOR NOW,
ADDED IN SOME THUNDER CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) INTO MOST OF THE
AREA, HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AREAS. SPC HAS A 15 PERCENT
SEVERE RISK CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS ON DAY
5/WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM
AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER EVOLVES.
THE DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. BREEZY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MAY BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE AREA. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXITS WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, SO LEFT SMALL POPS (20 TO 30
PERCENT) FROM THE NBM AS IS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED
BY SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MIXING IN
AS WELL. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY PROPPED ABOUT 1 COUNTY SOUTH OF THE
WI / IL BORDERLINE). THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WI TERMINALS TO
BRIEFLY OBTAIN SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING (NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE). ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY
MORNING, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(DEPICTED IN THE TAFS WHERE APPLICABLE), WITH SW WINDS ARRIVING
ALOFT AND SURFACE WINDS REMAINING NE OR E. COUPLED WITH
LINGERING IFR / LIFR CEILINGS, THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FUEL ALT MVFR, BUT CEILINGS FALL AGAIN LATER SUNDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS AND LINGERING LOW CEILINGS.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH EXPECTED.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A FRONT IS LOCATED AT THE MIDWAY POINT OF THE OPEN WATERS,
REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT SAGGING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND SOUTH
AT TIMES. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY,
WITH WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY. NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE AND NORTHWARD ARE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN
DOMINATE THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE POSSIBLE.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
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