119
FXUS63 KMKX 300915
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINSHOWERS ENTER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. OFF AND ON RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LULL IN
RAIN/STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE CURRENT CONCERNS WITH
THIS LINE OF RAIN IS FOR SOME MORE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER
AROUND FREEZING WITH THE DELLS AUTOMATED STATION SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AT 32 WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO AT 32. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS IN ANY
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOARD REMAIN STAGNATE. SO THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE RIDING
ALONG SOME 925 TO 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GOOD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE GREATEST CONCERNS.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LOW, SURFACE BASED LIFT AND CAPE ARE
ZERO AND THE FORCING IS LOCATED AROUND 925 TO 850MB.
IF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STAY STAGNANT SOUTH OF THE STATE
TODAY, THEN OUR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. LIKEWISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
LARGELY LOST. REGARDLESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE.
OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. NOW, THERE ARE STILL STRONG SIGNALS FOR THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO START MOVING AGAIN AND PULL NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE STATIONARY FRONT
SHOULD GET A REINVIGORATED PUSH OF WARM AIR AND BRING AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE
LATER START FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO START MOVING, UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GO HAS GROWN. THIS WILL THEN IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DAILY HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE INT HE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FOR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HAIL AGAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN (THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH NEVER MOVES NORTHWARD). COOLER
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING
SURFACE BASED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM
AND BULK SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AROUND 40 KTS. SO STRONGER STORMS ARE
NOT OUT THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGER STORMS IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE STATE. WRAP AROUND SHOWER ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT
THE REGION. CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPERATURE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF AN HR OR TWO WHERE WE COULD SEE
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL WILL
BE GRADUAL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND
A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH. WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST HEADING INTO MICHIGAN
THEN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING FROM MIDNIGHT
ONWARD WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE LAST OF THE LIFT AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH. FAR EASTERN LAKE SHORE COUNTIES HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER UNTIL 5 TO 7 AM ISH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY AND STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WEAK CAA AND LIGHT WINDS KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (WHICH FOR SOME OF YOU THIS
WEEK,CENTRAL WISCONSIN, MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS TAKE A TURN TOWARDS WARM
AND RAINY AGAIN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE AIR QUICKLY BECOME SATURATED
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO START OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BACK TO TUESDAY NIGHT, IF PRECIPITATION
STARTS TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO BE SOLELY
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD ALREADY BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THUS IT IS LESS OF A
CONCERN FOR THEM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY GROWING ON THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD PUT US IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, WE CAN
EXPECT: WARMER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER MOISTURE, INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND THUS A GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO SHOWN HIGHER SHEAR FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WISCONSIN. ON
THE ORDER OF 50 KTS OR MORE ON SOME DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL
RUNS. NOW... THIS WOULD GIVE US A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS BUT THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS. ONE BEING THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. A SOUTHWARD SHIFT WOULD DASH AWAY
CHANCES FOR WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. SECOND IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WOULD UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND SHORT CHANGE ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEFINITELY LOTS OF MOVING PIECES TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOULD WE GET
ANY STRONGER STORMS HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE OUR MAIN HAZARDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME
WEAK SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE TOWARD THE
STATE FOR SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY KEPT POP CHANCES LOW
AROUND 15%.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS AROUND 300 TO 800 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS TO RISE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING A LULL IN THE
RAINFALL TO AROUND 700 TO 1200 FEET. IF CEILINGS DO RAISE
SLIGHTLY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AGAIN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING, DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A LIGHT OF RAIN
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTH EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF LULL IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD FOR SOME LLWS. WINDS ALOFT MAY REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES FOR A COUPLE HOURS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERN WINDS ALOFT AND NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THIS TIME. AS TEMPERATURES DROP IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20%) FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET TO BRIEFLY MIX IN AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS
THAN AN INCH. RAIN WITH TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
MONDAY MORNING AROUND RUSH HOUR.
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY. TONIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUTS UP TO 25 KTS (30 MPH) POSSIBLE. MONDAY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TURN BECOMING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE BACK TRACKING THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE NORTHEASTERLY AND
GUSTY WITH WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS
NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT REMAIN UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE GUSTY
WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
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