099
FXUS63 KMKX 301740
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WI.
- LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS EVENING CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEN ENDS. LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE THUNDERSTORM OVER WRN WINNEBAGO COUNTY, IL HAD DEVELOPED
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK TO LAKE
COUNTY OR KENOSHA COUNTY BY MID AFTERNOON. THUS SFC BASED
CONVECTION IS IN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SCATTERED
ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE N-S COLD FRONT ACROSS
IL. THIS AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PVA APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXTEND NWD INTO ERN
WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER IA WILL THEN FOLLOW
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME, WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED 850-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
WEST CENTRAL WI TO NE WI. SOME OF THIS LIFT AND EVENTUAL RAIN
CHANGING TO LGT SNOW WILL CLIP SRN WI, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MADISON BUT SNOW ACCUMS WILL REMAIN MINOR. THERE IS A LITTLE
CONCERN FOR LGT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MKE METRO AREA IF THE TROPOSPHERE DOES NOT SATURATE
INTO THE DENDRITE ZONE BEFORE SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME THOUGH.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE CURRENT CONCERNS WITH
THIS LINE OF RAIN IS FOR SOME MORE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER
AROUND FREEZING WITH THE DELLS AUTOMATED STATION SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AT 32 WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO AT 32. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS IN ANY
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOARD REMAIN STAGNATE. SO THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE RIDING
ALONG SOME 925 TO 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GOOD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE GREATEST CONCERNS.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LOW, SURFACE BASED LIFT AND CAPE ARE
ZERO AND THE FORCING IS LOCATED AROUND 925 TO 850MB.
IF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STAY STAGNANT SOUTH OF THE STATE
TODAY, THEN OUR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. LIKEWISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
LARGELY LOST. REGARDLESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE.
OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. NOW, THERE ARE STILL STRONG SIGNALS FOR THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO START MOVING AGAIN AND PULL NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE STATIONARY FRONT
SHOULD GET A REINVIGORATED PUSH OF WARM AIR AND BRING AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE
LATER START FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO START MOVING, UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GO HAS GROWN. THIS WILL THEN IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DAILY HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE INT HE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FOR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HAIL AGAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN (THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH NEVER MOVES NORTHWARD). COOLER
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING
SURFACE BASED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM
AND BULK SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AROUND 40 KTS. SO STRONGER STORMS ARE
NOT OUT THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGER STORMS IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE STATE. WRAP AROUND SHOWER ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT
THE REGION. CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPERATURE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF AN HR OR TWO WHERE WE COULD SEE
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL WILL
BE GRADUAL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND
A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH. WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST HEADING INTO MICHIGAN
THEN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING FROM MIDNIGHT
ONWARD WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE LAST OF THE LIFT AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH. FAR EASTERN LAKE SHORE COUNTIES HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER UNTIL 5 TO 7 AM ISH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY AND STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WEAK CAA AND LIGHT WINDS KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (WHICH FOR SOME OF YOU THIS
WEEK,CENTRAL WISCONSIN, MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS TAKE A TURN TOWARDS WARM
AND RAINY AGAIN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE AIR QUICKLY BECOME SATURATED
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO START OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BACK TO TUESDAY NIGHT, IF PRECIPITATION
STARTS TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO BE SOLELY
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD ALREADY BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THUS IT IS LESS OF A
CONCERN FOR THEM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY GROWING ON THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD PUT US IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, WE CAN
EXPECT: WARMER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER MOISTURE, INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND THUS A GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO SHOWN HIGHER SHEAR FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WISCONSIN. ON
THE ORDER OF 50 KTS OR MORE ON SOME DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL
RUNS. NOW... THIS WOULD GIVE US A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS BUT THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS. ONE BEING THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. A SOUTHWARD SHIFT WOULD DASH AWAY
CHANCES FOR WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. SECOND IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WOULD UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND SHORT CHANGE ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEFINITELY LOTS OF MOVING PIECES TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOULD WE GET
ANY STRONGER STORMS HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE OUR MAIN HAZARDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME
WEAK SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE TOWARD THE
STATE FOR SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY KEPT POP CHANCES LOW
AROUND 15%.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CIGS BELOW 1 KFT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN
RISE TO MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF FOG
WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE, BUT BRIEF, WILL OCCUR OVER FAR SRN
WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TNT. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MORNING DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES OVER FAR NRN IL WILL TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND REACH
LAKE HURON BY MIDNIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR
OVER THE SOUTH AS THE LOW APPROACHES. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY, WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. AFTER THE LOW PASSES,
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AND WELL INTO MONDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SHEBOYGAN TO
WINTHROP HARBOR TNT - 1PM CDT MON.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM
SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY.
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