992
FXUS63 KMKX 311956
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK HIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODERATE RATES MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE
HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK, *IF* ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO
FORM. THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
- RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025)
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE 40S UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND EJECTS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO BECOME STEADY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO LATER TUESDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP AND RAIN TRANSITIONS ENTIRELY TO SNOW, THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWFALL (40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AN INCH OR MORE) FROM NORTHERN SAUK COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AND MUCH OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NORTHWARD. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND AWAY INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AND SIMULTANEOUSLY ARE EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
BRING IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
12Z MODELING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS IN ADDITIONAL TO 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW COULD LEAD TO
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL, BUT
GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATING STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME RELATIVE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WAA AT THE
SURFACE, ALTHOUGH EXPECTATIONS FOR A GENERAL, SLOW WARMING TREND
REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR LACKING INSTABILITY
AND KEEPING A SURFACE INVERSION, THUS PREVENTING SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50
KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MUCAPE
AND SURFACE TO 3 KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 55 KT COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
BOWING SEGMENT BREAKING THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER (ESPECIALLY IF A
BREAK OF SUN OCCURS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DURING A
BRIEF DRY SLOT WINDOW) AND PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. REGARDLESS, LOW
PRESSURE OCCLUDES AND SWINGS NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
ITS COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WELL.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EJECT
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LOW END (20-30%) CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
BOXELL
AVIATION
(ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025)
NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000 FT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY AT 20 TO 25 KT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM MSN/UES/MKE
NORTHWARD, AND UP TO AN INCH IN SBM TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS BAND, WITH
LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
MH
MARINE
(ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025)
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.3 INCHES OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, BUT THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.1 INCHES
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND BEGINS TO FILL ON WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS IT EXITS INTO ONTARIO ON
THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE OPEN WATERS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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