839
FXUS63 KMKX 011532
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK HIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODERATE RATES MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL
IMPACTS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
- THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY
PRODUCE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK, *IF* ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO FORM. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS.
- RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF WINTRY MIX TO
SNOW SWINGING THROUGH WITH THE LEADING WING OF WAA. TIMING OF
THIS BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL WITH THIS BAND OF
PRECIP STARING IN SOUTHWEST WI BETWEEN 4-6 PM CDT AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING BETTER CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-94 WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. HOWEVER, THE BETTER
FORCING AND BANDING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES LOOKS
TO BE MORE FAVORABLE BACK TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WI. NEVERTHELESS
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVIER RATES
(+0.5"/HR) SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH PERSISTING ONGOING
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THROUGH DAYBREAK, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM
OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, KEEPING AN EYE ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO
EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON SET UP REMAINS CONDITIONAL WITH HOW FAR
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT. ALSO THE PERSISTING RAINFALL
DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF A
COLDER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALL BE HINDRANCES TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE DECK CAN EASILY SEE
THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH ANY TALLER
STORMS.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, AS TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY DUE TO EAST WINDS OFF THE
LAKE, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE (GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH) NORTH OF I-94.
AFTER A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION, RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE EVENING INTO THE NIGHT
AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.
COULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY,
WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
POKES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES, WITH MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE ARE DEFINITELY MIXED SIGNALS AMONG MODELS WITH
THE AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL, SOME SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORT WAVE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MAY BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE AREA, BUT THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK
DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THU THROUGH SAT, FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1027 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW, WITH VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
QUICK ROUND OF WINTRY MIX TO SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
EVENING AS BAND SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST WI BETWEEN 21-23Z TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. AREAS NORTH OF I-94 HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. MAINLY
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES, BUT IF
HIGHER RATES SPREAD EAST COULD SEE A BIT MORE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TO SPREAD IN AND TRANSITION THE
PRECIP OVER TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AND ANY EVENING ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY NOT LAST TOO LONG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE RAIN
CHANCES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE A STORM OR TWO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH
DAYBREAK. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND MAYBE EVEN SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE, BUT THERE REMAINS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY GIVEN THE EASTERLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND PERSISTING RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANY SNOW, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR THE
DURATION AND LINGER BEHIND THE PRECIP.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY PICKING
UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MAY SEE
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. GIVE THE STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW. THE LOW OF
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT TO
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH GALES EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY, THOUGH BELOW
GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER BY FRIDAY MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-
LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
4 PM WEDNESDAY.
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