349
FXUS63 KMKX 170843
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH THE MOSTLY LIKELY PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
WI.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHERN WI.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO SRN MN AND WRN IA
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING.
ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL, BUT 50 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE INITIAL ROUND. THIS
1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A DRY AIRMASS WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TO 50-70 PERCENT IN THE EVENING AS
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE. ELEVATED CAPE WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION BY LATE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. CLUSTER OR LINES
OF STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MN AND/OR IA LATE. GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FINALLY FOR FRI, GRADUALLY WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
ERN IA TO NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE DAY WITH ITS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN SRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER DYNAMICS ARE
LACKING WITH ONLY A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS A PLUME OF
WARM AIR ALOFT VIA THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT ADVECTED INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE AREA, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT YET.
IF STORMS DO INITIATE FRI AFTERNOON, STRONG DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, ALBEIT LIMITED IN COVERAGE. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY, BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT BREAKS
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S AND 70S.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA CANADA GRADUALLY DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
DRY, PLEASANT WEATHER WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND INLAND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S (A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE).
ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS, AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS NEAR OKLAHOMA (IN RESPONSE TO JET-STREAM DIFFLUENCE)
AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DRIVE BREEZY EAST WINDS AREA-WIDE, WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN STEADILY INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
(QUIET WX TUE AND WED) OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM(S) AND RAIN
CHANCES COURTESY OF THE BAROCLINICITY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT DEVELOPING CIGS OF 4-7 KFT
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO TONIGHT. CIGS BELOW 1 KFT WILL THEN DEVELOP NORTH OF
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE LATE TNT-FRI AM, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
TO THE SOUTH. AREAS OF 2-5SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE TNT-FRI AM.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4
INCHES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO IOWA. A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL
THEN SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5
INCHES. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER NORTH WINDS SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST FROM LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM THURSDAY TO
7 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
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