143
FXUS63 KMKX 171638 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1138 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
STORMS, WITH THE MOSTLY LIKELY PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1138 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ELEVATED CAPE AND SHEAR ARE WEAK, SO NO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND, WITH 50S
CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND TAPS INTO INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE AND
SHEAR. MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STILL IS VERY CONDITIONAL, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE AREA. MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ENOUGH
FOR A RISK FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
THE QUESTION WILL BE IF AND WHERE THE STORMS FORM, AS THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CAMS SEEM TO BE TRENDING MORE
TOWARDS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON, AS THE CAP WEAKENS. SOME
DEVELOP MORE STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, WHILE OTHERS KEEP
IT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO SRN MN AND WRN IA
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING.
ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL, BUT 50 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE INITIAL ROUND. THIS
1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A DRY AIRMASS WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TO 50-70 PERCENT IN THE EVENING
AS WARM, MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE. ELEVATED CAPE WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION BY LATE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. CLUSTER OR
LINES OF STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MN AND/OR IA LATE.
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FINALLY FOR FRI, GRADUALLY WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM ERN IA TO NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE DAY WITH ITS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN SRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE LACKING WITH ONLY A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS A PLUME OF
WARM AIR ALOFT VIA THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT ADVECTED INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE AREA, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT YET. IF
STORMS DO INITIATE FRI AFTERNOON, STRONG DEEP AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
TO BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, ALBEIT LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. DESPITE CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY, BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT BREAKS ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA CANADA
GRADUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRY, PLEASANT WEATHER WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S (A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE).
ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS, AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS NEAR OKLAHOMA (IN RESPONSE TO JET-STREAM
DIFFLUENCE) AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DRIVE BREEZY EAST WINDS AREA-WIDE, WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN STEADILY INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH (QUIET WX TUE AND WED) OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM(S) AND
RAIN CHANCES COURTESY OF THE BAROCLINICITY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1138 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN, WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET AGL.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW 1000 FEET AGL IN AT
LEAST NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. VISIBILITY OF 2 TO 5 MILES SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STILL IS VERY CONDITIONAL, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, IF STORMS FORM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE STORMS MAY FORM.
SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE OF
29.4 INCHES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO IOWA. A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER NORTH
WINDS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM LATE TODAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
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