781
FXUS63 KMKX 172023
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY, HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY:
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
ENTERING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 12 AM CDT IN THE FAR WEST AND EXITING
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM CDT IN THE FAR EAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND TAPS INTO INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE AND DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY SUB-
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STILL IS VERY CONDITIONAL, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE AREA. MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ENOUGH
FOR A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, IF ANY STORMS CAN
DEVELOP. DESPITE CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING MOST OF THE DAY, WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING IN HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND
70S, WARMEST SOUTHEAST, WITH DEW POINTS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F.
THE QUESTION WILL BE IF AND WHERE THE STORMS FORM, AS THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CAMS SEEM TO BE TRENDING MORE
TOWARDS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON, AS THE CAP WEAKENS. SOME
DEVELOP MORE STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR INITIATE STORMS
IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
THERE MAY BE SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT
LINGER FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE DRIER AIR WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A DRY
PERIOD TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER
BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.50 INCHES OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION
ARE OVER 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALMOST ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A GOOD WETTING RAINFALL. KEPT HIGHER
END POPS (AROUND 80 PERCENT) FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A RAMP UP OF
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RAMP DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MILD TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, AS THE 500 MB FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
ENTERING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 12 AM CDT IN THE FAR WEST AND EXITING
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM CDT IN THE FAR EAST. MOSTLY SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS SOME
GUSTY WINDS.
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP GRADUALLY BELOW 1000 FEET AGL BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
VISIBILITY OF 2 TO 5 MILES SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 45 TO 50 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AGL.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STILL IS VERY CONDITIONAL, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE IS A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, IF
ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE LOW CEILINGS LINGERING MOST OF THE DAY,
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED, WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE LAKE, AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND
29.4 INCHES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO IOWA. A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES, AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SOUTH OF
THERE INTO FRIDAY, IF GUSTY WINDS REMAIN. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN
WATERS OF THE LAKE.
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER NORTH WINDS SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.4 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
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