045
FXUS63 KMKX 190257 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIETER AND COOLER FOR SATURDAY.
- HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
- COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED 957 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN
THUNDER THREAT OVER AT THIS POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES TONIGHT. OVERALL, THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO
WATCH CONVECTION AS IT STARTS TO BUBBLE UP THIS AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS BEEN GREAT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH
VALUES AROUND 60 OR GREATER. CAPE IS STILL ON THE LOWER END, BUT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GREAT AT 9C/KM. ANY LOW/MID LEVEL
CAPPING WILL KEEP STORMS IN CHECK FOR A WHILE. ONCE WE BREAK
THROUGH THE CAPPING THE GAME IS ON FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THAT FORCING NECESSARY TO
HAVE STORMS BREAK THE CAP. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN ARE LIKE TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE SET UP. STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GREAT FOR HAIL
SUPPORT. FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES BECOME SURFACE BASED CAN'T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO, BUT THE PLAY FOR THAT
LOOKS LIMITED TO ROUGHLY, ROCK, DANE AND WALWORTH WHERE THE
EFFECT FRONT HAS PULLED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PUT THEM IN A "WARM"
SECTOR. THIS WINDOW COULD CLOSE QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES OVER THIS
AREA.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN
ON THE BACKSIDE. THE LAST OF THE RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY ROUGHLY 10 TO 11 PM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY UNDER THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WEAK CAA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 50S.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
GOOD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S PRIOR TO THE START OF THE RAIN. WAA AND THETA E
ADVECTION WILL KICK OFF THE START OF THE RAIN/SHOWER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN/STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW MOVES IN
WITH INCREASED LIFT AND INSTABILITY GIVE US A CHANCE FOR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN COOLER AIR WILL
PREVAIL.
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULL OUT TO OUR EAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOUDY BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN MONDAY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND
THE LOW AND THE CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S ARE LIKELY
BUT THAT 10 DEGREE SWING BETWEEN COULD MAKE FOR EITHER A
PLEASANT OR CHILLY DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE SHORTWAVE, APPROACHES THE STATE
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE (20-40%) FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
THE PATTERN IS OPEN TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS
PERIOD, SO LOW END PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR WED
AND THU.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 957 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL WIND DOWN
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SEEING A FEW OBSERVATIONS IN
THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAVE POPPED UP TO VFR WITH THEIR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 5-15 HFT SHOULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST TO EAST SAT
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY, ASIDE FROM WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD FROM IA INTO WI AND THEN CROSSING CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEST SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING (BEGINNING WITH THE NORTHERN LAKE, THEN THE SOUTHERN
HALF AS THE FRONT PASSES). THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. MODEST
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER NORTH WINDS SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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