326
FXUS63 KMKX 220323
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1023 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
- POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF STORMS DEVELOP/ALIGN ALONG A WEST TO EAST
BOUNDARY NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.
- POSSIBLE DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DROP ON THURSDAY, TRENDING COOLER
FOR FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1020 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVERHEAD. RECENT RUNS OF RAPID REFRESH CAMS STILL
SUGGEST A FEW WEAK, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MID MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WI.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS AND BRINGS SOME CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. QUICK ON
IT'S HEALS IS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A WARM FRONT RUNNING
SOUTHEAST FROM THESE LOWS WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LIFT COMES IN
BETWEEN 850-700MB THANKS TO A TROUGH AT THAT LEVEL. SOME SKINNY
CAPE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF WHEN THE TROUGH COMES
THROUGH, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING WITH THE CONVECTION AS
IT COMES THROUGH IN THE MORNING BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
ORGANIZATION TO IT.
A WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH WILL BRING A
MORE HUMID AIR MASS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS GETTING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND
A LAKE BREEZE FROM THE EAST MERGE TOGETHER AND PUSH THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN TO CENTRAL IOWA TO ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
OR ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MORESO JUST LOOKS LIKE THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BORDER. THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE FOR ANY TRAINING OF STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND SIT OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. RIGHT NOW, THAT MAIN
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF ILLINOIS
COUNTIES, BUT ANY SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD FOCUS IT INTO
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
HALBACH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS
UP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE IT'LL BE ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH,
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS BEING
MORE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. 21.12Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE DEVELOPING WITH ABOUT 1000-2000 J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN WI.
0-6KM WIND SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD BUT ALSO NOT GREAT. LOW TO
MID LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER WITH MID LEVEL WINDS
GETTING INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT TRACKS NORTH INTO CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING, IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT
GATHERS SOME STEAM DROPPING BACK TO THE SOUTH. SOME SIGNAL OF IT
BEING A LAKE/PNEUMONIA FRONT-ISH LOOK TO GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. SO, WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THAT DAY,
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A MID-LATE AFTERNOON DROP GIVEN THE
CURRENT SETUP.
FOR FRIDAY, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH
AND WILL BRING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD SHOT AT RAIN. LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, SO NOT A THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS...POSSIBLY ANY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER
FRIDAY AS WELL DUE TO THAT FRONT GOING THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
BEYOND THAT, LOOKS DRY/COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS GOING INTO MONDAY WHICH WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR STRONGER STORMS.
HALBACH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1020 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
EXPECT VFR AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO 2500 TO 5000
FEET AROUND DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST AS SOME SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MOVE IN FROM IOWA. CEILINGS
THEN LOOK TO SCATTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN WI.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. WINDS HAVE BEEN HITTING 35-40KTS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
BEYOND THAT, THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS THE
REST OF THE WEEK. POSSIBLY SOME STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HALBACH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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