577
FXUS63 KMKX 221954
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
- WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY
KEEPING US COOLER OVERALL FRIDAY.
- DRIER THIS WEEKEND BUT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MOST
MODELS STILL KEEP THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH CONVECTION LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH. THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE (20-30%) THAT THE THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT SAG
AS FAR SOUTH AS EXPECTED AND IF THAT IS THE CASE, CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY INITIATE FURTHER NORTH OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WI. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP THE RISKS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEMS FAIRLY LIMITED BASED ON WHAT CAMS
ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING HOWEVER 1000-1500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AND
40ISH KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE WINDS SEEM TO BE THE LARGER THREAT GIVEN SOME OF THE
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF A BIT OF AN INVERTED V WITH
STRONG ENOUGH DCAPE TO BRING SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
HOWEVER.
LATER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EXPECT THAT WARM FRONT TO SLIDE
BACK NORTH INTRODUCING INCREASED PRECIP/STORM CHANCES (40-60%)
WITH SOME MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
INCREASED WAA (WEAK LLJ) AND LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. THE
LEVEL OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT MODELS ARE AT THE LEAST BRINGING 500-1000J/KG OF
MUCAPE TO THE REGION. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SEEMS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY (IN NORTHERN IL), BUT CONVECTION SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LIMIT THE UPPER BOUNDS OF OUR INSTABILITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ADDITION TO CAUSING COLD POOLS IN THESE
AREAS FURTHER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE BASED
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED HAIL, GENERAL STORMS SEEMS
MOST LIKELY WITH THIS. WED EVENING/NIGHT WE WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE
OUR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH LARGELY JUST SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS EXPECTED (MOSTLY FURTHER WEST) BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
SLIDES FURTHER NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER EVENING
STORMS BUT BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAK WITH
CAMS SUGGESTIVE OF LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING LARGELY QUIET WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO
MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
ALSO SOME FORCING ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA. INFLUENCE
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ISN'T ALL THAT NOTICEABLE IN MODELS BUT WITH
MOISTURE ALOFT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE INFLUENCE MIGHT BE A BIT
UNDERDONE. PERHAPS THE DAY THURSDAY COULD SEE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY THOUGH IT WOULD STILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FURTHER
NORTHWEST. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AS THE EC, NAM AND CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL HAVE
THE LOW COMING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK STORMS, WHILE THE GFS
DEVELOPS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND THUS BRINGS LESS
PRECIP OVERALL. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THINGS COME BACK INTO LINE WITH
MODELS SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHER PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES IN.
KUROSKI
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME. IT IS EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE
DETAILS, BUT STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH DAYS WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
MARQUARDT
AVIATION
ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY (70-80%) THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE WARM FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN IL WHILE REMAINING ON THE
DRIER SIDE IN SOUTHERN WI. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STORMS/SHOWERS PUSHING NORTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER BUT IT APPEARS
LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT. ANY STORMS WOULD CARRY SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WARM
FRONT WILL KICK BACK NORTH BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO SOUTHERN WI WITH THE BEST CHANCE TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI. MODELS
INDICATE SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BE MORE SCT TO BKN. PRECIP/STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING OR AT LEAST BECOMING MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN, MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS TODAY, PREDOMINANTLY FROM
THE SOUTH BUT TURNING MORE WEST AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. NEAR
THE LAKE A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BRINGING MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS AROUND THE
NORTHERN ND/MN BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECTING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. EXPECTING TO
SEE THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY WASH OUT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS LOOK TO BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW WORKS IT WAY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FROM THE PLAINS.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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