345
FXUS63 KMKX 232012
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, BUT COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE MICHIGAN.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH COOLER TEMPS AFTER.
- DRIER THIS WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER WINDOW WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A PERIOD OF DESCENDING MOTION FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
MORNING'S WEAK MCV HAS LEFT A WINDOW FOR SUNSHINE TO GRADUALLY
STEEPEN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH ARE CURRENTLY POOR, AS
EVIDENCED BY THE GENERAL LACK OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS). A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK STORM MAY FORM IN FAR SOUTHERN
WI (NEAR THE IL BORDER) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE POOR THERMODYNAMICS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION. INSTEAD, THE MAIN AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE
CUMULUS FIELD EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN NORTHEAST IOWA, ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THAT OCCURS IN THAT REGION IS LIKELY TO
DRIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, IMPACTING
OUR REGION AFTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED IN THE
SUNSHINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING CURRENTLY FEATURES 15-35% CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(HIGHEST FURTHER WEST), THOUGH THIS COULD BE INCREASED IF
FAVORABLE TIMING / UPWIND-PLACEMENT OF INITIATION IN IOWA /
SOUTHWESTERN WI OCCURS.
IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT, WE'D BE WORKING WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 40-50KT EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR (MOSTLY ALOFT,
SHALLOW SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE RELATIVELY WEAK), WITH STEEP LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME CELLULAR OR
LINE-SEGMENT STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, WITH
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
HELICITY ALOFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE (THUS CONTRIBUTING TO
HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS), BUT LOW-LEVEL HELICITY
INTEGRALS ARE NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE. THAT, COUPLED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NBL LATER THIS EVENING WILL LIMIT TORNADIC
POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY MID-THURSDAY / THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL HOLD
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS TO THE 50S, BUT ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S FURTHER WEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
COMING SOON / DISCUSSION IN PROGRESS.
AVIATION
ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS (LOWER ALTITUDE) BUILDING INTO THE
REGION, GENERALLY REMAINING OVER 4000 FT (VFR). SOME SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A ~35%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (DUE
TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY) OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AM BEFORE
DISSIPATING, LEAVING A LULL FOR MID THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. EAST WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FOR
TERMINALS IN LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.4 INCHES BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE NEAR 29.9 INCHES WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE OPEN WATERS. GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING FORECASTS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS TAPERING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS 30.4 INCH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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