821
FXUS63 KMKX 311509
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1009 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE (50-70%) FOR RAIN AND STORMS AROUND MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY RISING LATE
THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS JUST STARTING TO CLIMB INTO THE
60S. LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORE AREAS ARE COOLER THAN THERE INLAND
COUNTERPARTS, BUT EVERYONE WILL SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILD FIRES
WILL STILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ALOFT. THE
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS SW WI EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATER TODAY, A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN FAST NLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN WI THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, THE MODELS DEPICT A VERY WEAK SFC
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX. DESPITE THESE
FEATURES, THE TROPOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY, THUS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE
ALOFT IS MAINLY EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI TODAY, BUT WITH
MORE ARRIVING OVER ALL OF SRN WI TNT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AT THE LAKEFRONT TO LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
QUIET WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE UPPER
70S INLAND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO WISCONSIN LATER
IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH
WI ON TUESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FLOW INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS INTO
SOUTHERN WI. TUESDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS QUITE GUSTY WITH SOUTHWEST
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY, SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID. THE MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN GET
PICKED UP BY THAT NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH
WHEN IT IS OVER MN AND WI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS NEARLY
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE, THE SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A GREAT SEVERE STORM SETUP, BUT IT WILL BE ONE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FOR A SURPRISE MICROBURST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE ON. ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST WI THU AFTERNOON AND
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODEST
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
MID DAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FEW TO SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.
THIN SMOKE ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE WILD FIRES TO OUR NORTH, BUT
NO SURFACE SMOKE IS EXPECTED.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
LIGHT TO MODEST NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY, AND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM MINNESOTA. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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