212
FXUS63 KMKX 311946
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE (50-70%) FOR RAIN AND STORMS AROUND MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE STATE. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND
RIDGING TO OUR WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN SO TOO WILL SFC HIGH PRESSURE. PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH, BUT DRY AIR ACROSS THE STATE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS CLEAR AND QUIET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE.
WILD FIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENTLY THE LAYER IS VERY THIN AND ENTIRELY ALOFT SO
VERY LIMITED IMPACTS WITH MORE VIBRANT SUNRISE AND SUNSETS. WE
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PUSHES OF SMOKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE, BUT AGAIN ITS SUPPOSED TO BE ELEVATED.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE
MONDAY. THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
AND STRONG WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SURGE
OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
ALONG THE LAKE TO THE MID 80S INLAND. MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THIS WARMING AND HUMID TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE HAVE A TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THIS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GREAT SUPPORT FOR
THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN TO MERGE BACK INTO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
CREATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS
MERGE. MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE WILL SURGE TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES C (ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 DEGREES F). SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACT VERY SIMILARLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. PWAT'S WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2 PLUS INCHES MOVING IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD CREATE AN EFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ONE
THAT WILL BE EFFICIENT A PRODUCING RAINFALL. FOR COMPARISON, THE
CLIMATOLOGY SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND GRB BALLOON LAUNCHES HAVE
MAX PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AS THE DAILY MAX FOR THIS
WEDNESDAY. SO COMPARED TO HISTORY THERE'S A LOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MID THIS WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE
SO TO WILL THE WINDS TUESDAY LEADING TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SO WE'VE
PREPPED THE STAGE, BUT WHATS OUR FORCING MECHANISMS... WELL
WHILE ALL OF THIS IS GOING ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
HUDSON BAY AREA WILL BE MOVING EAST AND DRAGGING WITH IT, A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FONT
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE WILL BE LOADING INTO THIS SYSTEM, IT MIGHT
NOT BE THE BEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE WE WILL BE WORKING WITH, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN EVERYTHING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
FALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
DURING THIS TIME.
BEYOND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO
LINGER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS TROUGH AND SOME
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES POPS IN THE FORECAST (15 TO 30%) THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THERE'S A POTENTIAL
THAT DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT SUBSIDENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LACK OF MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY OR JUST LEAD TO PESKY DRIZZLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OUT OF A SITUATION LIKE THIS, SO
EXPECT POPS TO EITHER DECREASE IN TIME AND/OR PERCENTAGE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. THANKFULLY DESPITE THE COLD
FRONT, TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO STABILIZE IN THE 70S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODEST
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
MID DAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FEW TO SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.
THIN SMOKE ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE WILD FIRES TO OUR NORTH, BUT
NO SURFACE SMOKE IS EXPECTED.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
LIGHT TO MODEST NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. GALES ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WINDS AND WAVES BUILD TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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