003
FXUS63 KMKX 020204 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
(80-90%) FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
STRONG STORM OR TWO.
UPDATE
ISSUED 904 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. THE FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THAT WERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI ARE MOVING OUT, BUT SMOKE
CONTINUES TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE HIGH
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 50
UNDER LIGHT WINDS, SLIGHTLY LOWER EAST OF MADISON AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEST.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 217 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE
FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES,
RESULTING IN FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LAKE BREEZE
PROGRESSING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THE ELEVATED SMOKE MAY BECOME MORE DENSE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY, BUT WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WARMEST WEST OF MADISON. DEEPER MIXING ON MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WILDFIRE SMOKE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MORE MILD TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 217 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY, AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY,
ALONG WITH SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, WILL KEEP THE
SEVERE RISK ON THE LOW SIDE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE (60-70%+) FOR AT
LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN, BUT VERY LOW CHANCES (<10%) OF SEEING
MORE THAN 2 INCHES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
GENERALLY FALLING BETWEEN AN INCH AND INCH AND A HALF IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER
ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. BEYOND THAT, GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE
A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY FROM THIS FEATURE MAY BE OUR
NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN MAKER, BUT COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK,
OVER THE WEEKEND, OR NOT AT ALL. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 904 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY MONDAY. SOME ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON; IF SO, A LIGHT HAZE
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BOXELL/CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 217 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING A BIT BREEZY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
LAKE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT.
INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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