691
FXUS63 KMKX 021512
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SURFACE SMOKE WILL BE BRIEF
AND VERY LIMITED.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
(80-90%) FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAY'S FORECAST, THE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S REMAIN LIKELY, WITH A LAKE BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW, PERHAPS ONLY
REACHING ~5 MILES INLAND.
FOR TOMORROW (TUESDAY), SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD
(HIGH SWIM RISK) CRITERION ADJACENT TO SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE
COUNTIES, PERHAPS FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. ISSUANCE OF THESE
PRODUCTS IS LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL TAKE A DEEP DIVE INTO TUESDAY'S STRONG STORM AND RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ROLL IN.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
ALONG THE ADVANCING SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH A
LINE FROM CENTRAL MN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z TUE.
ALOFT, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MN WILL MOVE ACROSS WI AND THE WRN
GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT.
THE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE DOMINATED BY SMOKE IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS BUT SHOULD BE TRANSLUCENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE
SMOKE COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S TODAY AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, COOLER AT THE
LAKEFRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TNT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES FOLLOWED BY BREEZY SLY WINDS ON TUE AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXING AND WINDS GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW WI TUE AM AND
EVENTUALLY REACH LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON BY 00Z WED.
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A PLUME OF PWS NEAR 2 INCHES SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND BEST
ESTIMATES FOR MLCAPE ARE AROUND 500 J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON. MDT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELDS
STILL AT 850 MB SO MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS A CONCERN FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SLOW TUE NT IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM NE KS INTO SE WI TUE NT. THIS
UPPER WAVE IS SHEARING OUT A BIT WITH TIME AND THE PRESSURE
FIELDS ARE WEAKENING, BUT GIVEN THE MOIST SOUNDINGS IT SHOULD
GIVE SOME BOOST TO RAINFALL FOR LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL THE RIVERS ARE LOW AND SOILS ARE FAIRLY DRY, WHILE
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE RAINFALL RATES WILL SUSTAIN HIGH LEVELS
LONG ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD ONE INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH 20-40 PERCENT PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OVER
FAR SRN WI.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT FAR SE WI WED AM, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR THE DAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL IL, IN, AND SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER HUDSON BAY. THEREFORE, OUR
WEATHER IN SOUTHERN WI SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS GIVES US AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. EACH SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH ONE
IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR MODELS TO RESOLVE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE
MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A DAY OR TWO AT A TIME
WITHOUT RAIN, THE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITHOUT A DECENT
MOISTURE SOURCE, AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO RESOLVE TIMING BETTER AS
WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT,
KEEPING SKIES HAZY BUT NOT RESTRICTING SURFACE VISIBILITY.
HENCE, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP TODAY, AND MAY BACK THE WINDS TO
SOUTH / SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SHORELINE THIS AFTERNOON (KMKE,
KENW, KRAC, KSBM).
ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT (ROUGHLY 40KT AT 2,000 FT
AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE A WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL ACCELERATE AND
BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF TUESDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MODERATE RAIN
AND WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AFTERWARDS. WINDS DECELERATE
AND VEER NORTH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BECOMING BREEZY OVER THE NORTH
HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EXPANDING TO ALL OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE LAKE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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