327
FXUS63 KMKX 022021
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SURFACE SMOKE WILL
BE BRIEF AND VERY LIMITED.
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY, MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 3
PM AND 10 PM CDT. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT, AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
- SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WORK WITH HUDSON
BAY CANADA LOW PRESSURE TO FORM A SW TO NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WHICH DRIFTS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 500MB
FLOW IS ROBUST AND ORIENTED PERFECTLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY,
SUGGESTING THAT LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PREVAILING
CONVECTIVE MODE (THOUGH SOME CAMS MANAGE A FEW DISCRETE CELLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT). THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM CDT TUESDAY IN A WEST TO EAST
MANNER, POSING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE
POTENTIAL). THE LARGELY LINE PARALLEL WIND SHEAR AND MOSTLY
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL,
THOUGH ANY EASTWARD SURGES IN THE LINE (IF PRESENT) WOULD NEED
TO BE MONITORED. CAPE IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL
THREAT (IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT ISN'T THE MAIN CONCERN). THE
RISK LEVEL (2 OUT OF 5) IS HIGHEST IN SOUTHWESTERN WI AS SEEN IN
TODAY'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, COINCIDENT WITH AN EARLIER STORM
ARRIVAL (SHORTLY AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING) AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY.
WEAKER STORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 70S AND UPPER 60S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW PRESSURE POSE
A ~30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF WARMTH / MOISTURE RETURN.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT,
KEEPING SKIES HAZY BUT NOT RESTRICTING SURFACE VISIBILITY.
HENCE, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE.
ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT (ROUGHLY 40KT AT 2,000 FT
AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE A WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL ACCELERATE AND
BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS
ALONG A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY, SWEEPING EASTWARD
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM CDT. INITIAL CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD BASES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 4,000 FT (VFR), WITH A THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. CONTINUED SHOWER / WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO
LOWER CEILINGS TO FUEL-ALT MVFR LEVELS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
IFR POSSIBLE OVER TIME. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE STORMS AND THE FRONT (GUSTS 25-30KT) WILL VEER NORTH AND
DECELERATE BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE, BECOMING GUSTY OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING
AND PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON (25-30 KT). THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
VEERING NORTHWEST (AND EVENTUALLY DUE NORTH) BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE LAKE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 AM TUESDAY TO 10
PM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071...4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM
TUESDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
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