000
FXUS63 KMKX 030227 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SURFACE SMOKE WILL
BE BRIEF AND VERY LIMITED.
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY, MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 3
PM AND 10 PM CDT. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT, AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
- SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 927 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN AS WE DECOUPLE, BUT EXPECT
A STEADY BREEZE AROUND 8 MPH OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD IN THE MID 60S.
THE ONGOING STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MN WILL DIMINISH BEFORE THEY GET
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS OR STORMS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND NOON OR 1 PM TOMORROW. THE 00Z
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS, ALTHOUGH HAVE VARYING INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIP BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO OUR AREA. IF STORMS
EXIST ALONG THIS OUTFLOW, A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. IF WE REMAIN SUNNY
IN THE MORNING, IT LOOKS LIKE CAPE COULD BE AROUND 500 J/KG AND
POTENTIALLY UNCAPPED.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM, WHICH IS A LITTLE LATER THAN
WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. THERE ARE STILL MODEL
DIFFERENCES, BUT THE TREND IS FOR A LATER FRONT ARRIVAL TIME.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WORK WITH HUDSON
BAY CANADA LOW PRESSURE TO FORM A SW TO NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WHICH DRIFTS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 500MB
FLOW IS ROBUST AND ORIENTED PERFECTLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY,
SUGGESTING THAT LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PREVAILING
CONVECTIVE MODE (THOUGH SOME CAMS MANAGE A FEW DISCRETE CELLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT). THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM CDT TUESDAY IN A WEST TO EAST
MANNER, POSING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE
POTENTIAL). THE LARGELY LINE PARALLEL WIND SHEAR AND MOSTLY
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL,
THOUGH ANY EASTWARD SURGES IN THE LINE (IF PRESENT) WOULD NEED
TO BE MONITORED. CAPE IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL
THREAT (IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT ISN'T THE MAIN CONCERN). THE
RISK LEVEL (2 OUT OF 5) IS HIGHEST IN SOUTHWESTERN WI AS SEEN IN
TODAY'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, COINCIDENT WITH AN EARLIER STORM
ARRIVAL (SHORTLY AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING) AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY.
WEAKER STORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 70S AND UPPER 60S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW PRESSURE POSE
A ~30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF WARMTH / MOISTURE RETURN.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 927 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE WINDS DECOUPLED THIS EVENING SO WE LOST OUR GUSTS. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
WINDOW WHERE A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HIGHER WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONGOING SHOWERS.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE, BECOMING GUSTY OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING
AND PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON (25-30 KT). THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
VEERING NORTHWEST (AND EVENTUALLY DUE NORTH) BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE LAKE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 AM TUESDAY TO 10
PM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071...4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM
TUESDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
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