475
FXUS63 KMKX 031451 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
951 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK TODAY FROM SHEBOYGAN COUNTY SOUTH
TO RACINE COUNTY DUE TO DANGEROUS LONGSHORE AND STRUCTURAL
WATER CURRENTS.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- RAIN WILL LINGER ON WEDNESDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WI BUT
GRADUALLY END.
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF SURFACE
SMOKE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED 951 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE LEADING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND NOON. THIS ROUND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND REACH THE LAKE BY 3-4 PM. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATER AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
HAZARD THREATS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND MAYBE SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH THE STORMS. IN ALL, THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE MCV OVER NW IA WILL TRACK INTO NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON BUT A
SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ENHANCE
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD TO A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO EAST CENTRAL WI FOR EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT SE WI DURING THIS
TIME. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN 500 J/KG DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE CAPE IS ALSO DEPICTED AS LONG, SKINNY CAPE ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED BUT OVERALL
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
NEW SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE SLOWED ACROSS SRN WI TNT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LIFTS
NEWD INTO SRN WI AFTER 06Z. TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
IS EXPECTED WITHIN A PW AIRMASS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES. THE NBM AND
WPC QPF FORECAST FOCUSES ON A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FROM
ROCK COUNTY TO OZAUKEE COUNTY BUT SOME PLACEMENT ERROR WOULD BE
EXPECTED. UP TO TWO INCHES ON AVERAGE COULD FALL IN THIS BAND
BUT LOCALLY MORE GIVEN SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH A MODERATE DROUGHT OVER FAR SRN
WI AS WELL, SO WILL KEEP THE MESSAGING TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING AT THIS TIME. LESS INTENSE RAIN WILL THEN LINGER
ON WED OVER SE WI WHILE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MKE METRO AREA. A NARROW BAND OF SURFACE SMOKE
COULD RETURN ON WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER ALL OF SRN WI FOR WED NT.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THE OTHER ONE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE, AND THE FORCING IS VERY WEAK, SO THESE
SHORTWAVES MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THEY DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH OR UNSTABLE FOR THUNDER. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL OR JUST BELOW.
LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A MORE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WITH AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 951 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH A MUCH LOWER THUNDER CONCERN OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM KLNR TO KMRJ
BY 17Z, KMSN BY 19Z, AND LAKESHORE AREAS BY 20-21Z. THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF LULL AFTER THIS FIRST ROUND, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
EXPECTED LATER AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WED MORNING SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING, WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL TANK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 1
KFT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
LIKELY WITHIN ANY MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON (25-30 KT) BUT
REMAIN BELOW GALES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERING NORTHWEST (AND
EVENTUALLY DUE NORTH) BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE LAKE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
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