530
FXUS63 KMKX 032054
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
354 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK TODAY FROM SHEBOYGAN COUNTY SOUTH
TO RACINE COUNTY DUE TO DANGEROUS LONGSHORE AND STRUCTURAL
WATER CURRENTS.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS WEEKEND AND PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. A BREAK IN
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO
RECOVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY AS A
RESULT, WITH A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AS THE NEXT
PUSH OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 2 INCHES
AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY, REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS.
THUNDER CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, WITH LINGERING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE AREAS OF CLEARING.
WARMEST TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE A LONGER
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP IT EVEN
COOLER IN THE FAR EAST.
THE HIGH SWIM RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FROM RACINE
COUNTY NORTHWARD. LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED. STAY OUT OF THE WATER, AND STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS
AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH, LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL, ASIDE FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE
LAKE UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. YET
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE, WITH MORE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY THEN BRING A RETURN OF DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH A MUCH LOWER THUNDER CONCERN OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE BIGGEST
THREATS. THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST BETWEEN 21 AND 23Z, WITH THE LINE PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL WIND DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO TANK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 1 KFT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.6 INCHES LIFTS FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
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