660
FXUS63 KMKX 040916
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
416 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES AND POOR AIR QUALITY WILL SETTLE OVER
SOUTHERN WI TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY BUT MAY BE EXTENDED BY THE WDNR.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
POST FRONTAL 920-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM ROCK COUNTY INTO THE
MKE METRO AREA IS SUPPORTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES WILL
SETTLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI BY LATE THIS
MORNING, AND LATER FOR SE WI, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL OBSCURE
THE SUN A BIT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, AQI VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE
UNHEALTHY CATEGORY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND SHOULD
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF SRN WI LATER THIS MORNING. THE WDNR HAS
ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON BUT IT COULD BE
EXTENDED. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SRN WI FOR
TNT-THU. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TNT BUT COULD DISPERSE
A BIT FOR THU. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WELL INLAND
TODAY WITH 60S OVER FAR ERN WI, FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
INLAND FOR THU.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS IN
THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EACH DAY. DEW POINTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. EXPECT LESS IMPACTS FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE, BUT
WILL NEVERTHELESS BE MONITORING TRENDS IN THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH SATURDAY. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE, THOUGH POTENTIAL IS
OVERALL LOW (~15-25% PRECIP PROBABILITIES). WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES. A BROADER & MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. BRINGING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CIGS BELOW 1 KFT OVER MUCH OF SRN WI WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NW TO SE TODAY REACHING KMSN AROUND 15Z AND FAR SE WI DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING MAY NOT
CHANGE MUCH AFTER THE RAIN ENDS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SMOKE AND REDUCEDD VSBYS MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO TNT.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REACH THE INDIANA
SHORELINE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT TO MODEST
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT,
WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH HALF,
WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. THE WEAK HIGH WILL THEN
PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH HALF
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE NORTH HALF. AREAS OF FOG AND
SMOKE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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