566
FXUS63 KMKX 051511
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A RETURN
OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 955 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND HAZE IS STILL BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST NOON TODAY AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SENSITIVE GROUPS THROUGH THAT TIME. THE WISCONSIN
DNR WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL EXTENSION.
HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY GIVE US A BIT OF A
REPRIEVE. HOWEVER, SOME HIGHER SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS MAY GET
TRAPPED IN THE MARINE STABLE LAYER THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND WORK ITS WAY WEST TO OUR SHORES OVERNIGHT AMID
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AREAS OF LIGHT GROUND FOG THROUGH SUNRISE TODAY, WHILE SMOKE
WILL BE MORE DISPERSED TODAY VIA HRRR AND RAP SMOKE FIELDS. THE
AIR QUALITY ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER WI AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S AT THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WELL INLAND. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE FOR TNT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN IL
AND FAR SRN WI. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON FRI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND DRIFT TOWARD CENTRAL WI LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD CENTRAL
WI. SOME SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
60S AT THE LAKE MI SHORELINE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WELL INLAND.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
GENERALLY IT LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE REGIONALLY ALOFT WITH VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LARGELY
MISSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. HOWEVER MODELS LARGELY KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVERHEAD. INTO SATURDAY THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS
BUT THE BEST SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
REMAIN LARGELY EMBEDDED IN WEAK RIDGING. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CWA WHERE LOW TO
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
FORCING COMPONENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS WHERE THERE IS A BIT LESS
UNCERTAINTY AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH. THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A PERIOD OF GREAT
MOISTURE WITH THIS WHERE PRECIP WOULD BE CONSIDERED LIKELY
(70-90%). IN ADDITION DEPENDING ON THE TIMING WE COULD SEE
INSTABILITY BUILD IN AHEAD OF THIS WITH CHANCES FOR SOME STORMS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (30-40 KTS) IT IS CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CONCERN FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS BUT A LATER ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY WOULD BRING
HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS WHILE AND EARLIER ARRIVAL
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW PUSHING STILL PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY WE EXPECT
CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS SEEMS
MORE LIMITED MONDAY WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHING THROUGH. THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
OUT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND BETTER LARGE
SCALE RIDGING SLIDING IN. THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE. INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER INTO NEXT WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 1002 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
SMOKE AND HAZE WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING, CAUSING
VISIBILITY DROPS IN SPOTS. CURRENTLY THE WORST SMOKE AND HAZE IS
IN SOUTHEAST WI, WHERE VIS IS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 TO 6SM. SMOKE
AND HAZE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR A TIME INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE MAY
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN HIGH VFR AND FEW TO SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING BKN TO OVC HIGH VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE AND EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY INTO TONIGHT.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
LARGELY STAY PUT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELEVATED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE AND FOG TODAY.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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