590
FXUS63 KMKX 060857
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
357 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAIN GOOD WITH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. THE
DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS DUE TO A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKE REGION. THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE ARE IN AN AREA
OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND SMALLER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LEADING
TO LIGHT RAIN. SHOULD ANY OF THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS LIKELY (60 TO 80%) THAT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN AS VIRGA AND THUS KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL "WIGGLES" (SHORTWAVES) MOVING THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL ASCENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY APPEAR ON RADAR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT, BUT HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MORE VIRGA. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD SATURDAY LEADING TO THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OUT, FORECAST SOUNDS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE
IT THROUGH AND REACH THE GROUND. THEREFORE LOW CHANCE POPS AROUND
20% ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. ANY RAIN THAT DOES MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND WILL BE LIGHT.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS BECOME LESS UNCERTAIN AS A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PUSHING IN. THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A PERIOD OF GREAT MOISTURE WITH THIS WHERE PRECIP WOULD
BE CONSIDERED LIKELY (70-90%). IN ADDITION THE LATEST TIMING
TRENDS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH A BIT LATER AND THUS WE
SHOULD EXPECT SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (500-1000 J/KG). THIS SHOULD BRING SOME CONCERNS FOR STORMS
AND PERHAPS STRONG. ALTHOUGH SHEAR ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (30-40
KTS) IT IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BRING SOME RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO
EVEN SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS POTENTIAL RISK. EXPECT SOME DRYING OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND
THE FRONT
WITH THE UPPER LOW PUSHING STILL PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY WE EXPECT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR IN THE MODELS HAS DEFINITELY
IMPROVED GIVEN MODELS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK KEEPING US ON
THE SOUTHERLY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THUS FIRMLY IN THE REGION
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND HIGHER END SHEAR (40-50
KTS). THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AS
WELL THOUGH THERE REMAINS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE CHANCES. THE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL
KEEP CHANCES HIGHER WHILE A SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL LOWER CHANCES AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL DROP OFF IF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
MORE OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND BETTER LARGE SCALE RIDGING SLIDING IN.
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
LATER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING
LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. BROKEN SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. OVERCAST SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TAKE ON A NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN TURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE SMOKE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN, NO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY LEADING TO LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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