741
FXUS63 KMKX 062000
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING, WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
WIGGLES IN THE 500MB FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK LIGHT,
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI, WITH ACTIVITY WANING AS DIURNAL HEATING TAPERS INTO
THE NIGHT. SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL MOSTLY
LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITH CLEARER SKIES. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
(SURFACE TDDS ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES), MOST OF THIS LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL WI WILL APPEAR ON RADAR, BUT LIKELY FAIL
TO REACH THE GROUND OR ONLY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH VIRGA
ALOFT.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONTINUING WIGGLES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING CLOSER TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE CORN BELT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE YESTERDAY,
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS SHORTWAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
IA/MO BORDER AND IL, DIMINISHING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN WI FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED POP-UPS
(~15% CHANCES) CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE BULK OF THE
RAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SCOOT BY TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF THE BETTER PVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE. ANY POP-UPS
IN OUR AREA COULD HAVE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS CAMS DEPICT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG WITH MOST OF THE CAPE AT OR ABOVE THE FREEZING
LEVEL.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING
WILL THEN END SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 219 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA, SHIFTING A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. MODELS VARY
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERING
DEPICTIONS CONCERNING PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
OVER THE CORN BELT SATURDAY.
FOR MODELS THAT PHASE THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC
TROUGH SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKER/EARLIER IN
THE DAY, BLUNTING SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS THAT DON'T SHOW THIS PHASING HAVE A MUCH
SLOWER FRONT, AND THEREFORE ALLOW HIGHER CAPE TO BE REALIZED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS AS THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES INTO
THE REGION, THE MIX OF SHEAR AND CAPE WOULD SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SOLUTION IS FAVORED GIVEN
MORE MODELS EXHIBITING THIS BEHAVIOR. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORM THREAT AS MODELS HONE IN ON SUNDAY WITH TIME.
BEYOND, A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
ON MONDAY, BRINGING A RESERVOIR OF COLD AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, A SECOND SNEAK ROUND OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, GIVEN MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6.5 TO 7 C/KM AND SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS.
TUESDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW MAY LINGER LEADING TO MORE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED RAIN/THUNDER, BUT DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE BACK OF
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY PUT A LID
ON OVERALL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
MID-WEEK.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 212 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
EXPECT CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS AMID LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVER
CENTRAL WI UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW, WINDS COME AROUND TO EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT. A STRAY POP-UP SHOWER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME (~15%).
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 225 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SATURDAY, CAUSING PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN COME AROUND TO WESTERLY
BY TUESDAY AND EASE IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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