648
FXUS63 KMKX 232020
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WEAKENING AND
STALLING NEARBY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5
SEVERE RISK IS PRESENT, MAINLY ON ACCOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4 RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF A MONROE TO
SHEBOYGAN LINE AT THE MOMENT AS WE MONITOR A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL WI. WITH
ROUGHLY 3000 JOULES MLCAPE, AND OVER 1000 JOULES OF DCAPE
(STRONG COLD POOLING EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT), THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LINE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING INTO
TONIGHT.
HEAT HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT TODAY AS CONVECTION AND THE
SHUTDOWN OF DAYTIME HEATING WORK TOGETHER TO COOL THINGS OFF.
EVEN WITH THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION, WE ONLY DROP
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FLAT FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP TONIGHT.
THOUGH IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TUESDAY, THE AIR WILL
REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND HIGHS), WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S) EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH (PENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT).
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, PRIMARILY (BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY) IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DECREASES
TO A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK REMAINS A
LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4 GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES (AROUND 2") OVERHEAD
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINS STALLED NEARBY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WIDESPREAD 40-75% RAIN CHANCES). EXACT RAIN CHANCES
/ AMOUNTS, AND STORM INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE BOUNDARY (HOW CLOSE IT IS) AND THE TIMING OF PERTURBATIONS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ALONG IT, BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN. WITH
ANY CONVECTION OVERHEAD, TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4 RISK, HIGHEST
FURTHER NORTH). IF A LULL IN ACTIVITY WERE TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING /
EARLY AFTERNOON (ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION) A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR. FOR THE TIME BEING, MOST MODELS ARE
PLACING THE THETA-E GRADIENT (BOUNDARY) FURTHER NORTH, ALLOWING THE
MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY / WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S RAIN TO FALL CLOSER TO
WAUSAU, THOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE, AND EVEN THOSE SOLUTIONS
STILL PLACE SOME RAIN IN OUR REGION.
FOR THURSDAY, A 500-250MB TROUGH IN THE JET BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
THIS COULD ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW TO DEVELOP AND LIFT A WARM
SECTOR NEARBY / OVERHEAD. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND ADVECTION OF
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED 50-80% RAIN
CHANCES, AND EXACTLY HOW THIS SHAKES OUT WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON
INITIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND LOW PRESSURE TRACK.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE TO 20-35% FOR FRIDAY, GIVEN THAT THE
FAVORED MODEL SOLUTION IS FOR US TO BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE, LEAVING POTENTIAL FOR US TO BE IN THE
DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DO LEAVE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY (AND SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER / STORM
CHANCES).
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
25% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS / STORMS. LOW PREDICTABILITY FROM THIS
PERIOD ONWARDS, BUT A TROUGH IN THE JET WOULD SUGGEST AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT (IN CENTRAL WI
AS WE SPEAK), CEILINGS AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET (VFR).
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL WI ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE FRONT
STALLS OUT TONIGHT (STORMS MAY OR MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WI, ROUGHLY A 50/50 CHANCE). A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH CUMULONIMBUS BASES AROUND 4,500 FT INITIALLY,
WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STORMS, AND
ANYWHERE STORMS LINGER FOR LONGER THAN AN HOUR OR TWO.
LATE TONIGHT, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE,
THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE NEARBY (PROB30
GROUPS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS OR WEAKER STORMS IN THE TAFS).
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL WI) THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT TIMES.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER NEARSHORE ZONES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRES AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS, AS WELL AS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO DUE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES CONTINUES EASTWARD FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA TODAY, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF IT
DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST CONTINUE.
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL BE
MODEST, WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK UNTIL
SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT,
MULTIPLE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...HEAT ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 9 PM
MONDAY.
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