266
FXUS63 KMKX 242055
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
355 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
STRONGER STORMS FEATURING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN THREAT LOCAL
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A HIGH CHANCE (70 TO 80 PERCENT) OF EXCEEDING
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING UNDERNEATH
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
- RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RISING, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN
AND STORMS BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS REACHING FLOOD
STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- A RETURN TO HIGHER HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SLOW MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE LOSING ICE CRYSTALS AND
THEREFORE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME
STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS.
PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY A VERY WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A SOURCE OF ASCENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, SHEAR REMAINS VERY
LOW AT ONLY 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 500 MB. THIS
PREVENTS STORMS FROM MOVING RAPIDLY AND KEEPS CLOUD COVER FIRMLY
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, THEREBY LIMITING THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM TONIGHT,
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE LONG PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
BUT DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY, TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE BREAKS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
WEDNESDAY, A RETURN TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. AN
MCS LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE APEX OF THE LLJ IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, WITH ITS COLD POOL PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMING
THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION,
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHEAR (35 TO 45 KT SURFACE TO
500 MB), PRODUCING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG).
WITH ALL THESE CONSIDERATIONS, STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN (PWATS BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES) ARE BECOMING
MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIVERS ARE
ALREADY RISING FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. A FEW RIVERS MAY EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL ACT AS THE
PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG CURRENTLY
BEING PROJECTED BY MODELING IMPLIES QUICK-DEVELOPING STORMS,
WHILE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES CONTINUE AND SHEAR BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KT LEAD TO SLOWER-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF CONTINUING FLOODING
CONCERNS. GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDICATES PRIMARY
HAZARD ONCE AGAIN TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND MICROBURSTS UNDER
STRONGER STORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUED RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATING
FLOODING CONCERNS.
GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN THEN SETS BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER
90S. RIDGING WILL BE SHORTLIVED THIS TIME, HOWEVER, WITH
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW IN THE HUDSON BAY AND A
SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS, BEFORE
EXITING INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SLOW MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THIS EVENING, LOSING LIGHTNING POTENTIAL INTO
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY STILL BECOME STRONG, WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO A VERY WEAK FRONT, THERE WILL
BE LONG PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL, BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE BREAKS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WITH HIGHER
THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY OF DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT, PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED MORE LIBERALLY FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
EXPECTATION TO AMEND AS ENVIRONMENT DICTATES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS MAY BECOME DOMINANT BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTENSIFIES WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A WEAK, NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY,
BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. EXPECTING MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECTING THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE, BRINGING SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THE OPEN WATERS. AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST, EXPECT A
WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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