786
FXUS63 KMKX 261509
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1009 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SPOTS
INLAND AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
- A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL
TORNADO THREAT WITH A FEW STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A LINE OF STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WIND THREAT THIS EVENING.
- RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RISING, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN
AND STORMS BRINGING POTENTIAL RISES TO ACTION STAGE AND MINOR
FLOOD STAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A BRIEF WARM UP FOR SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A QUASI-STAIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE, WITH 2000+ J/KG OF
MLCAPE, AND OVER 100 J/KG OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. OVERALL LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG, SO THE EXTENT OF
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS
QUESTIONABLE. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP, HOWEVER, WOULD HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS IOWA AND
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS. SOME
QLCS-TYPE CIRCULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
THIS LINE SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, WITH THE
OVERALL HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 26.
BOXELL
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG, BOTH INLAND AND ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE, WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS DEW
POINTS POOL ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE, AND LOW
LEVEL WAA CONTINUES AT THE 925 TO 850MB LEVEL ALOFT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INLAND FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAWN, BUT SOME
NEARSHORE FOG ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER DAWN AND THROUGH THE REMAINING MORNING HOURS, MODELS
DEPICT THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO
ABOUT FOND DU LAC COUNTY THROUGH MARQUETTE COUNTY, AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN IOWA. AS LIFT FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME PVA FROM A 500MB TROUGH
ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE REGION, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER IOWA, AS WELL AS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS AFTERNOON, CAMS DEPICT STORMS FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND
TIMING, BUT THE MAIN CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS A POTENTIAL STORM
OR TWO FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH SAUK, MARQUETTE,
GREEN LAKE, AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES. THIS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
SOMEWHERE AROUND 2 TO 4PM. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING, HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD
BUILD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO SUPPORT 2500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, WITH SOME REALLY GOOD 0-3KM CAPE AROUND 150 J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING POTENTIAL,
THE PRESENCE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT >200 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. HODOGRAPHS, WHILE LACKING IN FLOW
ALOFT, DO SHOW STREAMWISE HELICITY NEAR THE SURFACE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS, SUPPORTING A
SUPERCELLULAR MODE. LCLS WILL BE AROUND 500M AS WELL. IF A STORM
FORMS IN CENTRAL WI AND LATCHES ONTO THE WARM FRONT AS SOME
CAMS SUGGEST, A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL WI.
TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK WEST, STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ONGOING OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AS A SQUALL LINE
AROUND 6PM. THIS LINE WILL APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH CAMS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
THE LINE MOVES INTO OUR CWA. EVEN SO, SOUNDINGS REMAIN UNCAPPED
ENOUGH WEST OF MADISON AND A GUSTY WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR WITH
THE LINE AS IT MOVES IN, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST A BIT MORE
DRYNESS TO THE LOW LEVELS IN SOUTHWEST WI. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
CONDITIONAL BRIEF QLCS TORNADO THREAT IN CENTRAL WI AS THE
SQUALL LINE MOVES IN, GIVEN THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE WARM
FRONT BEFORE THE LINE GUSTS OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
AFTER DUSK. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST EVENING, A THEN SEVERELY
WEAKENED LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN TRAVEL EAST AND EXIT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AS THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOK MOSTLY DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
(ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025)
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN WI SHOULD HELP US TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE BETTER FORCING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN MN. ANY
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE FRIDAY FRONT SHOULD BE WELL
INTO ILLINOIS. THAT PUTS SOUTHERN WI IN THE NON-EVENTFUL SECTOR.
OF COURSE, THIS CAN CHANGE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION TRACKS INTO
OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING.
HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70, HEAT
INDICES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S. THE WINDS LOOK MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST WEEKEND, WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE
MUGGY.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY UNTIL A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
POTENTIALLY ROLLS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MN
SUNDAY. THIS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY RIDE THE CAPE GRADIENT WHICH
SHOULD BE OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI. AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-94 HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GOING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS START TO DIVERGE THEN, WITH THE GFS TRYING TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND THE ECWMF MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.
EITHER WAY, A RIDGE RIDER OR TWO LOOK POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK,
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE INDEPENDENCE DAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
HERE.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH TIME
TODAY, WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON, IF DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ALONG THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ONCE CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, AREAS OF LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE CENTER OF LAKE
MICHIGAN, ROUGHLY FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO LUDINGTON. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A
A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE
MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0
INCHES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A
STORM COMPLEX MAY ROLL ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. THEN
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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