137  
FXUS63 KMKX 270241 AAA  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
941 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK ACROSS  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WI LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
- SOMEWHAT COOLER AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH WARMER/MORE HUMID  
ON SUNDAY.  
 
- A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO  
AROUND AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
AFTER A LONG AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
FIRING WITHIN AN AREA WITH NO CAP (WEST OF THE LAKE BREEZE) BUT  
NO UPPER FORCING, WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO SEEING THE LINE OF  
STORMS ARRIVE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE IS ONE STRONGER  
SEGMENT OF STORMS THAT MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVER THE PAST  
HOUR AND WE ARE WARNING ON IT DUE TO WIND. THAT AREA HAS NOT  
BEEN TOUCHED BY THE LAKE BREEZE, BUT IS NOTCHY AND HAS SOME  
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR QLCS TORNADO, THUS WE HAVE KEEP  
THE TOR POSSIBLE TAG IN THE WARNING.  
 
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GUSTING  
OUT/WEAKENING, AND THE NORTHERN PART IS MOVING INTO THE AIR MASS  
STABILIZED BY THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION IF THE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN,  
OF IF THERE WILL JUST BE SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THEN, OR IF  
EVERYTHING WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE LAKE ESPECIALLY  
TOWARD SOUTHEAST WI. MILWAUKEE HAS BEEN SOCKED INTO THE MARINE  
LAYER WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE AND CEILINGS OF 500 FEET, SO  
STABILITY IS VERY HIGH THERE.  
 
WITH THE FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE STORMS OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS  
LOOK VERY UNLIKELY.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 243 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW:  
 
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER  
POTENTIAL. AS OF 2 PM, A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN, GENERALLY JUST NORTH OF THE I-94/US 18  
CORRIDOR, CURVING BACK SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. AS LOW  
PRESSURE ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA STATE LINE MOVES EAST-  
NORTHEASTWARD, THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE  
NORTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS  
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE SPATIAL EXTENT IS STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN  
THE RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT. THAT SAID, ANYTHING THAT BECOMES  
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS  
TO WORK WITH, WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THERE IS ALSO  
A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CAPE, WITH 0-3 KM VALUES  
BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG.  
 
WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ISN'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, THE STRONG LOW  
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOCALIZED INCREASE IN HELICITY ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH  
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION, ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND  
GUSTS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS  
SUGGEST THAT WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE,  
IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.  
 
LATER THIS EVENING FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A LINE OF STORMS  
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COMPARED TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ALONG  
WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER TORNADO THREAT. ANY EASTWARD SURGES IN THE  
LINE, ESPECIALLY IF COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OR AN  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WILL STILL POSE A RISK FOR QLCS CIRCULATIONS,  
HOWEVER.  
 
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THIS EVENING, WITH  
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE BY  
MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT  
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS  
TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER, WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED.  
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON HELPING TO USHER  
SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION AS WELL.  
 
BOXELL  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 243 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW  
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT  
SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S,  
WARMEST SOUTHWEST OF MADISON, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID  
60S. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY  
NEAR THE STATE LINE, AS A SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE AREA-WIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHARPENS TO THE NORTHWEST.  
THIS LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AN  
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS  
EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AROUND 90. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY  
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, AS HEAT INDICES WILL  
TOP OUT AROUND 100.  
 
A FEW DAYS OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO MORE  
AVERAGE VALUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OVERNIGHT  
LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LOOKING MORE TOLERABLE,  
WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST DAYS.  
 
BOXELL  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
EXPECT A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE LAKE  
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GETS STIRRED UP DUE TO OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES. THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO  
LAKESHORE AREAS OVERNIGHT AFTER THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CLEARS.  
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY  
MORNING UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT CLEARS SOUTHEAST WI.  
 
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT  
FROM MID TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
INCREASING CEILINGS THROUGH NOON AND CLOUDS SLOWLY SCATTERING  
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 243 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE IOWA AND  
MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY, REACHING WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A STATIONARY  
FRONT WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE INTO THIS  
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND NORTH TO  
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE SURFACE LOW  
APPROACHES TONIGHT, WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER  
THE WHOLE LAKE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE  
OPEN WATERS. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OVER THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME  
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY EARLY FRIDAY, BECOMING NORTHERLY  
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES MOVES THROUGH THE  
AREA.  
 
WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS  
THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.  
 
BOXELL  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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