139
FXUS63 KMKX 270915
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
415 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDEX VALES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
STILL OCCUR INTO THIS MORNING, UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
EAST AND HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER. NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA, TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS A RESULT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER
TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH THESE
CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, UNCERTAIN WITH IF AND HOW MUCH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP, SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ARE
EXPECTED.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
RIDGING FIRMLY BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ANGLED INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. KEPT NBM POPS (20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES) IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THIS TIMEFRAME,
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN RIDGE PLACEMENT AND THEREFORE IN THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE NOSE OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.
SUNDAY, RIDGING REACHES ITS FARTHEST NORTH PEAK, WITH
EXPECTATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES OR IN THE LOWER
90S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR THESE TEMPERATURES TO REACH ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IN
ADDITION, THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, ALLOWING FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES.
AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
SETTING OFF A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY (ENSEMBLES
SHOWING 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG)
AND MOISTURE CONTENT, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. BULK SHEAR REMAINS MODEST AT 20
TO 30 KNOTS, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMAINING COLD POOL FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S CONVECTION. GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS COME IN.
LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES INTO THE HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY, BRINGING
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD IN THE MIDDLE 80S. WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE OCCLUDED LOW, A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
OCCLUDED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME, BRINGING SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
STILL OCCUR INTO THIS MORNING, UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL FROM
THE WEST MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WITH HIGHER BASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST AND HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS A RESULT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER
TONIGHT. SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, UNCERTAIN WITH IF
AND HOW MUCH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP, SO LEFT
MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TODAY. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, ALONG A COLD
FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS
THEN SHIFT WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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