461  
FXUS63 KMKX 280857  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
357 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN.  
 
- HEAT INDEX VALES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH  
THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
- TURNING A LITTLE LESS HUMID THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TOWARD THE END  
OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
ISSUED 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:  
 
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS THERE ARE SOME  
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FOOT AGL RANGE THAT MAY  
LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY OVER AREAS AROUND AND NORTH OF MADISON.  
 
IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION IN  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA INTO THIS  
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES  
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.  
 
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE REST OF THE MORNING, BEFORE  
MOVING TO THE EAST OR MIXING OUT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN  
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR  
AFTERNOON, WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING. HIGHS SHOULD  
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 80S INLAND, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE  
LAKE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  
 
SOME CAMS TRY TO BRING REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST  
TOWARD OR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MIDDLE TO LATE  
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MORE TO THE  
NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO TODAY, SO THINK ANY WEAKENING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WOULD REMAIN IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW, KEPT FORECAST  
DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.  
 
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF  
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST AND  
NORTH. KEPT SMALL POPS (20 PERCENT) IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AND  
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,  
JUST IN CASE ANY REMNANT SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLD TOGETHER.  
 
IT SHOULD BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH 925 MB  
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS IN  
THE LOWER 70S SHOULD BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 95 TO 100  
DEGREE RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HEAT INDEX  
VALUES ARE NEAR THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE PER THE NBM, SO NO  
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. STILL, IT WILL BE A  
MUGGY DAY, SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MESSAGED.  
 
CAMS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEY GENERALLY  
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST  
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON  
SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN  
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
HOWEVER, SOME CAMS HAVE THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING DURING THE  
EVENING, WITH OTHERS DRY FOR THE AREA. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS  
ROBUST, IF IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE NOT MUCH OTHER  
FEATURES TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS BESIDES A POSSIBLE  
MCV FEATURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THUS, FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH WHAT MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, WITH MEAN  
LAYER CAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR  
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THUS, SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH  
STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR THIS STORM POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, AND HOPEFULLY GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND  
IMPACTS IN LATER FORECASTS.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
ISSUED 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:  
 
THE PRECIP FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN FOR MONDAY, AS IT WILL DEPEND  
ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT. IF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLS  
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT, THIS MAY ACT AS A FOCUS  
AREA FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY, ONCE THE  
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON OUR CLOUD COVER,  
BUT THE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE.  
 
WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE  
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN  
ORDER TO KICK OUT SOME OF THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.  
 
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY  
LOWER DEWPOINTS, BUT OUR TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH. THIS  
WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL START TO LEAN OVER INTO  
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS PUTS  
US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE A ROUND OR TWO OF  
CONVECTION, AS STORMS FIRE UPSTREAM AND RIDE THE RIDGE THROUGH  
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS  
PAST WEEK.  
 
CRONCE  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
ISSUED 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS THERE  
ARE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FOOT AGL RANGE  
THAT MAY LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY OVER AREAS AROUND AND NORTH OF  
MADISON.  
 
IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA INTO THIS  
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES  
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.  
 
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE REST OF THE MORNING, BEFORE  
MOVING TO THE EAST OR MIXING OUT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN  
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR  
AFTERNOON, WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING. LIGHT WINDS  
WILL BECOME SOUTH TODAY INLAND, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR  
TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH  
AND REMAIN LIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD THEN OCCUR ON SUNDAY,  
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE THAT  
COULD REACH MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE ARE  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF  
MADISON, WITH BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW  
IN TIMING AND IMPACTS WITH THE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE  
EAST TODAY, LEADING TO LIGHT TO MODEST WEST WINDS BECOMING  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE  
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.  
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. THE WEST WINDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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