997
FXUS63 KMKX 290247
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDEX VALES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- TURNING A LITTLE LESS HUMID THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 947 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TNT, WHILE THE
SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER ERN SD MOVES JUST A BIT EWD. THE
DEEP AND SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MN IS WITHIN A SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SRN MN INTO NW WI THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
FROM MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR FOR SUN AM. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A
MCS WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH AND LIKELY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 1003 MB MOVES ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO ON SUN, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NW WI
TO SE MN TO WRN IA BY 00Z MON, WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
NE WI. A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
IA AND NRN MO INTO IL, WHILE FASTER SWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NRN GREAT PLAINS. THUS WEAK WIND
SHEAR AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER SRN WI, BUT
WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG GIVEN HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90F AND
LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT ENTER
LOCATIONS NW OF MADISON UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT AT LEAST
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY INTO THE EVENING. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT MOVE INTO SRN WI FROM THE WEST SUN AFTERNOON COULD BE A
TRIGGER POINT FOR THE INITIAL CONVECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE,
HIGH DCAPE, AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, A FEW SEVERE PULSE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERN FOR SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100F GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. A
FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND A SFC FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW HEADING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE DECAYING
AS THEY ENTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND THERE CURRENT TRACK
SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DRY. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MAY SEE SOME OF THE REMNANTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE HEADING
INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TOMORROW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON THEN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HELD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AS WHILE IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID, APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100. THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING BELOW THESE THRESHOLDS, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH POPS FOR
SUNDAY. MANY LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND
LETTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN GET DRY SLOTTED OF ALL THINGS. A
LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THAT.... THERE IS LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDER A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS
SO IT SHOULDN'T TAKE A LOT TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SINCE THIS WAS SUCH A
BIG SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
DRY AIR, BUT ITS GOING TO HAVE TO OVERCOME A LOT TO COMPLETELY
CLEAR OUT RAIN.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON. ANY
STRONGER STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS THE
MAIN HAZARD. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HAIL PRODUCTION AND
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS.
PATTERSON
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
IA AND NRN MO INTO IL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
MONDAY'S RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO
THE EAST MID MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE BACKSIDE, BUT LARGELY THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING. THE NBM
SEEMS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND MOST OF THE CAM GUIDANCE WHICH MEANS
POPS WERE FAIRLY HIGH FOR MONDAY. WHILE THERE WAS A MASSIVE
SHIFT IN RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE CAMS, DIDN'T WANT TO PUT TO MUCH
WEIGHT ON THE FASTER TIMING AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST YET. SO
DID LOWER POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT DIDN'T REMOVE
THEM. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A BIG
THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT THE BRIGHT SIDE IS MONDAY
SHOULDN'T BE A WASH OUT DAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINTS, BUT OUR TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH. THIS
WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL START TO LEAN OVER INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS PUTS
US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE A ROUND OR TWO OF
CONVECTION, AS STORMS FIRE UPSTREAM AND RIDE THE RIDGE THROUGH
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS
PAST WEEK.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 947 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TNT-SUN, BUT SCT-BKN035-040 CUMULUS CONGESTUS
FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS, LOW VSBYS, AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
STORMS.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 947 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THEN
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. THE LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WEST WINDS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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