554
FXUS63 KMKX 301452
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
952 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
WEEK, WITH BETTER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 952 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MIXED OUT THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A
(COMPARATIVELY) STRONGER FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST FRONT,
BUT CHANCES ARE LOOKING FAIRLY LIMITED.
BOXELL
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MAY LIMIT THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO BE MORE PATCHY. STILL, PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR
IN LOW LYING AREAS IF ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS. THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION, AND THE FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE WITH THE FRONT IS
WEAK TO MODEST. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT, SO SOME DIFFERENTIAL CVA WILL HELP WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MAY
ALSO HELP OUT WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OR MORE OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS BY EARLY
EVENING. SO, COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES GOING INTO THE EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT, AS CAMS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA, POSSIBLY ALONG THE 850
MB TROUGH AXIS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
PROVIDING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED, WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE. IT SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AS WELL.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE DAY WILL BE WARM,
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF TO THE WEST NEAR
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS DO DEPICT A WEAK
TROUGH SINKING SOUTH OVER THE STATE AND LARGELY RUNNING INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DYING OUT. THE NBM PAINTS 15 TO 20 PERCENT
POPS OVER SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG AVAILABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORM FUEL. HOWEVER, DRYNESS TO THE SOUNDINGS ALOFT
MAY MEAN ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY SUFFER FROM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAND PAT FOR THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLED ALONG THE LAKE FROM NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH, WHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S.
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY AND INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO LEAN
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
ON THE 4TH AND 5TH WITH HEIGHTENED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. MODELS THEN SHOW A COLD FRONT PASSING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 952 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THESE
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO THIS
MORNING, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MAY BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE WEAKENING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
SHOULD THEN LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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