342
FXUS63 KMKX 221914
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
214 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISKS DUE TO BUILDING WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
FOR OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR MILWAUKEE AND RACINE COUNTY
BEACHES AS WELL. HIGH SWIM RISK IS ALSO LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MORE EXPANSIVE POTENTIAL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH LIKELY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS
POINT.
- DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDING INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LIKELY NEEDED
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
- INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (>50%) FOR THURSDAY
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
QUIET CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER, LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING EXPECT THE PROGRESSION OF AN MCV FEATURE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO WISCONSIN. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TIMING, BUT
DISAGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND ITS
TIMING. SOME CAMS LIKE THE RRFS KEEP THE REGION DRY LIKELY AS A
RESULT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL WARMING, WHEREAS OTHERS LIKE THE HRRR
DEVELOP CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH LARGELY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MOST KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING.
WHILE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE MCV THE
DIRECTION HAS CHANGED AND MAY CONTINUE TO WHICH COULD ALTER OUR
STORM POTENTIAL LATER WED MORNING. STORM POTENTIAL IS LARGELY
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA.
WHILE THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN WI APPEARS LIMITED AT
THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER MAY BRING ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT HOW WARM WE CAN GET, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GET THE MORE PROLONGED
PERIODS OF SUN WE SHOULD EXPECT WITH 925MB TEMPS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SUGGESTIVE OF HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN WI. WHILE SOME AREAS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES OVER 105
IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME A WIDESPREAD CONCERN AND
THUS WE HAVE SHIFTED THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH TO A HEAT ADVISORY.
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY FOR WAVES UP TO 5 FEET FOR WEDNESDAY.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING OF THIS BUT WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF STORMS POTENTIAL
THURSDAY PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK
SHEARING WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POTENTIAL BUT LARGE INSTABILITY COULD BRING SOME STRONGER
STORMS. THE OTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WITH THIS IS HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AS IT RELATES TO THE HEAT
POTENTIAL. BASED ON CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTATIONS WE SHOULD AT
LEAST EXPECT HEAT ADVISORY TYPE CONDITIONS (HEAT INDICES > 100)
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WI WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY AS YOU MOVE
WEST BUT A SLOWER PROGRESSION WILL BRING A WIDER AREA OF HEAT
WITH A FASTER PROGRESSION KEEPING THE AREA MORE FOCUSED FURTHER
SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY, FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO
BE MORE MODERATE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER, THIS IMPACT FRIDAY
SEEMS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE RIDGING ALTHOUGH FLATTER
LARGELY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE COMING FROM
THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE MOVES BACK IN MORE FULLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE 90S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE ROUNDS BACK OUT OVER THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW HOT WE CAN GET MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED STORMS. HOWEVER, RELIEF FROM THE FRONT
MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE
WEST, ENCOMPASSING SOUTHERN WI BUT LEAVING US IN A REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY. MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST
RELIEF MAY NOT COME UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY THAT MAY
PUSH THE EXTENT OF THE RIDGING SOUTHWEST A BIT.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LIFTING TO VFR AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEFORE A FEATURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR
CIGS BACK TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
LIKELY CLEARING DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WI. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND MORE BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A LOW PRESSURE WING WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INITIALLY, WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE FRONT TO
REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD,
BRINGING STORMS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN
WATERS. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO WESTERLY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHT FOR WAVES TO 4 FEET. THIS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH THE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY, LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON BUT POTENTIALLY A TIER SOUTH AS WELL.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
HEAT ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...11 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
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