160
FXUS63 KMKX 231548
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1048 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK DUE TO BUILDING WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY TODAY FROM NOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR OZAUKEE COUNTY IS EXPECTED.
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THURSDAY.
HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR THURSDAY WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
THE MCV HAS FOR THE MOST PART PIVOTED NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OUT TO THE NORTH LIKELY KEEPING US DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND PUSH OUT WE CONTINUE TO
EXPECT THE AREA TO WARM UP VERY QUICKLY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STILL
REACHING THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI. AT THIS POINT WE STILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF THE
AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SOME LINGERING
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO REACH NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA BUT
GENERALLY MODELS KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA.
INTO THURSDAY RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN, HOWEVER THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
IN THE REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD THE IMPACTFUL
HEAT WILL BE. 925MB TEMPS AND FORECAST DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES OVER 100 WILL BE IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A HEAT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA.
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT, MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
TRENDED ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR THURSDAY. THE TRACK TIMING BRINGS
THE FRONT BEGINNING BY THE LATE MORNING AND GRADUALLY SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THE PRECIP CHANCES ARE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SHOWERY STUFF IN THE CAMS BUT FAR MORE
ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED. THIS WILL BE
THE THING TO MONITOR INTO THURSDAY AS THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
INTO THE EVENING EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUIET AND TEMPERATURES TO
COOL OFF.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) IS TRACKING INTO SOUTHWEST
WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MANY MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS WELL,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN
ITSELF INTO EASTERN WI. AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM JANESVILLE TO
FOND DU LAC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THE SCATTERED STORMS, WITH
LOWER CHANCES EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS ML CAPE OF 1000 J/KG BUT
WEAK SHEAR. THE 0-1KM LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS DECENT, WHICH IS
CHARACTERISTIC OF AN MCV. RIGHT NOW, THE SURFACE INVERSION IS
KEEPING US STABLE. IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP, A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 2 INCHES, VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY, SO IF THERE ARE TRAINING STORMS, THEN BRIEF
URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE MCV COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT FOND DU
LAC COUNTY BY 11 AM.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON ON BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH THE CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE AREA OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING, SKIES OVER
SOUTHERN WI SHOULD BE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
ADVECTING IN, THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF HIGHER VALUES UP TO 107 DEVELOPING.
NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY, BUT WE STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL TO UPGRADE A SMALLER AREA (PROBABLY SOUTHEAST
WI) INTO A WARNING- JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
TO THE MID 70S (UPPER 70S IN THE EAST). THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW, THE BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHS
IN THE 90S IS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST AROUND 100 TO 102 THERE. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE (AND CLOUDS
THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER), SO OPTED NOT TO EXTEND OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY INTO THE NEXT DAY.
OUR FORECAST HAS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR STORMS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING, AND A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE (65-75%)
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WI. THE HIGHER CHANCE
(55-65%) LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE EVENING AND TAPERS
OFF NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST CAPTURES THE REGION
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE MESO MODEL FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES PAINT A
DIFFERENT PICTURE. THIS IS A RESULT OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MCVS WILL EXIST AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE IDEA IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WOULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI (AFTER ANY SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATED)
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IF THERE ARE ANY REMNANT MCVS THAT
CROSS OVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE OTHER IDEA IS THAT A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THAT STALLED BOUNDARY
MID MORNING AND LIMP ALONG INTO SOUTHEAST WI DURING LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT TIED TO ANY MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FORCING. ONE OTHER IDEA IS THAT STORMS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY,
WITH CONVECTION REMAINING POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT EITHER
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE JUST NORTH OF WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL STORMS(20-50% CHANCE, WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD). HOWEVER, PLENTY OF DRY AIR WORKING IN
ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS ONLY AROUND 20 KT WILL LEAD TO MORE
POP-UP ACTIVITY RATHER THAN STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS ARE NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER, AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THE EDGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SITUATE.
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THE NORTHEAST U.S., WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES INTO THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF A COLORADO LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY (~20-40% CHANCE).
250 MB RIDGING REGAINS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS GOING INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND THEREFORE A
RETURN TO HEAT GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECTING
RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SHIFT BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ONCE AGAIN
TRAVERSES CANADA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS LEADING TO LOWER POPS IN THE NBM.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY PUSHED OUT WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BY THE MID AFTERNOON, IF NOT EARLIER AS WE HAVE ALREADY CLEARED
OUT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WI
BUT BKN MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL START TO PUSH IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIP OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. DEPENDING ON
HOW EXPANSIVE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY WILL
DETERMINE HOW EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER IS AND WHETHER IT IS MVFR OR
MORE SO VFR. MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THINGS DRIER OVERALL THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT THE INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN WI. OTHERWISE WINDS THURSDAY WILL
BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM THE AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING HOURS.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE LAKE, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR STORMS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INITIALLY,
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD,
BRINGING STORMS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN
WATERS. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AROUND 29.8 INCHES WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO
WESTERLY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...HEAT ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
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