630
FXUS63 KMKX 231951
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK DUE TO BUILDING WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE SWIM RISK
FOR OZAUKEE COUNTY IS EXPECTED.
- AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR ALL LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
- DANGEROUS HEAT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES
OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIALLY
NEEDED THURSDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (25-45%) FOR THURSDAY WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWER & STORM CHANCES (~20-40%) RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 253 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPAIR THE ABILITY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO WARM
UP BUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH
TO BRING CONDITIONS NEAR OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES EXPECTED AROUND OR OVER 100.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TO REACH NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA BUT GENERALLY MODELS
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHERE A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF HEADING TO THE
BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INTO THURSDAY RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN,
HOWEVER THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE SHOWER/STORM/CLOUD POTENTIAL IN THE
REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD THE IMPACTFUL HEAT WILL BE.
925MB TEMPS AND FORECAST DEWPOINTS GENERALLY SUGGEST THE BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES OVER 100 WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT, MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
TRENDED ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR THURSDAY. THE TRACK TIMING BRINGS THE
FRONT BEGINNING BY THE LATE MORNING AND GRADUALLY SLIDING THROUGH
THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THE PRECIP CHANCES ARE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH SHOWERY STUFF IN THE CAMS BUT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED. THIS WILL BE THE THING TO
MONITOR INTO THURSDAY AS THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAINS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES INTO THE EVENING EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO QUIET AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF.
KUROSKI/QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SYNOPSIS: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS STATE LINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS/STALLS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BORDER, ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG & SOUTH OF
I-94 & US-18 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
LIFT FROM THE WAVE AND ITS AFFILIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING STORM
CHANCES TO ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING BY SATURDAY EVENING AS FORCING
MECHANISMS PIVOT NORTHEAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE FEATURES WILL
MAINTAIN A MUGGY AIR MASS REGIONALLY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW A VERY WARM AIR MASS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. COMBINED WITH WITH
LINGERING HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES COULD THUS CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER
90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, THOUGH LARGE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MUCH DRIER AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 & US-18, WHERE PROXIMITY TO A
STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE STATE LINE, WITH POTENTIAL
BEING GREATLY REDUCED IF THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS DEEPER INTO ILLINOIS
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN THE EVENT STORMS DEVELOP, AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
(~1500 J/KG CAPE) OVERLAPPING WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~20 KTS
IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER). GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANY
STORMS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN
ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS (~1.75"+) POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE (IN THE EVENT
STORMS FORM) SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HYDRO IMPACTS, THOUGH TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING FORECASTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES RETURN AREAWIDE AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE & RETURNING WARM FRONT
PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY
SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS. MODEL QPF CURRENTLY
POINTS TOWARD PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS, THOUGH MINOR HYDRO IMPACTS
(PONDING OF WATER, URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING) CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS. WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS,
PARTICULARLY IN ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY: RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, THOUGH THE NEXT BATCH OF VERY WARM AIR AND HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF ELEVATED HEAT INDICES AREAWIDE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY (> 100)
THRESHOLDS, WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING MEDIUM (~40%)
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 95 ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. SHOULD TEMPS OR DEW POINTS TREND
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, HEAT HEADLINES WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER/NOT
HEADLINES ARE ULTIMATELY ISSUED, THOSE WITH SUNDAY OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD PLAN TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHT-COLORED & LOOSE-
FITTING CLOTHING, IN ADDITION TO TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN SHADED OR
AIR-CONDITIONED AREAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: PERIODS OF STORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO HONE IN ON PREFERRED TIME WINDOWS FOR STORMS
IN THIS FORECAST. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WHEN HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ONCE MORE. CONTINUE TO TAKE PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS IF
PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WI BUT BKN
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL START TO PUSH IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME
LINGERING PRECIP OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. DEPENDING ON HOW EXPANSIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY WILL DETERMINE HOW
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER IS AND WHETHER IT IS MVFR OR MORE SO VFR.
MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THINGS DRIER OVERALL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
BUT THE INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN WI. OTHERWISE WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE
AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING HOURS.
KUROSKI/QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE PROCESS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY, ULTIMATELY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER ON FRIDAY,
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW'S APPROACH
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, TURNING WEST-
NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSING
SURFACE LOW, WITH A FEW BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. 1012
MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH POINT
LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL TAPER
APPROACHING MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP, A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAT ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
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