261
FXUS63 KMKX 241630
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1130 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-50%) FROM EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. HEAT INDICES MAY REMAIN A BIT LOWER
FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20-50%) REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1123 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE IS SOME HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL
FOR A BIT MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE BETTER CAPE WILL MATERIALIZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WELL, THE LINE OF STORMS THAT WERE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT QUICKLY DISSIPATED THROUGH 2 AM AS THE MAIN
AREA OF STORMS DOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT SOUTHERN WI CONTINUES TO BE UNTOUCHED
BY CONVECTION. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL
MN WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON.
PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR, THERE APPEARS TO BE AN MCV
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF IOWA. THE HRRR, NAMNEST AND
RAP SEEM TO KNOW ABOUT THIS AND TRACK IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHEN THE
ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH.
THUS, THIS IS OUR WINDOW OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS ONE OTHER WINDOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS AND
THAT IS LATE THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BE ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH - SOME MODELS HAVE THIS LIGHTING UP WITH
CONVECTION IN FAR EASTERN WI BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE
CAN GET TODAY AND THEREFORE DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS (AND CLOUDS) IN THE AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EXCEED 100 IS LOW, EVEN FOR SOUTHEAST WI.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WOULD STILL SUPPORT HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS AMPLE SUNSHINE. THUS, THE
INSTABILITY/CAPE IS HIGH. SHEAR ALONG AN MCV OR FRONT WOULD ALSO
BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE, SO THERE IS A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, THUS THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC IS REASONABLE.
IF STORMS INITIATE OVER SOUTHERN WI AT ANY TIME TODAY, GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL (AND MAYBE
TORNADO IF MCV MOVES THROUGH). THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND IN OUR CHANCE
OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGHEST CHANCE (50 TO 60%) IS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE IL BORDER OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS IN NORTHERN IL, BUT THAT CHANCE
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
SINCE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL LINGER. IN FACT, THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH FRIDAY (AND BEYOND). HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO AN EASTERLY
BREEZE. WITH THE FRONT SITTING OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN IL AND
THE MOIST, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LINGERING, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR MAYBE A FEW STORMS TO PERCOLATE INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS
BORDER FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED RAIN AND STORMS WILL ALSO PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECTING THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW TO NUDGE INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY MORNING,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL END INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAT CONCERNS TO THE
REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ENTERS THE RIDGING PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN. HEAT MAY BECOME A CONCERN AND REQUIRE ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AS RIDGE
RIDERS BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
ENHANCE CLOUD COVER FROM OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
AND THEREFORE PREVENT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM RISING AS HIGH AS
INITIAL FORECASTS INDICATE.
ON MONDAY, A STRONGER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE HUDSON BAY, CURBING REMAINING RIDGING AND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL TO THE AREA. LONGWAVE
TROUGHING AT JET STREAM LEVEL THEN MOVES BACK INTO THE HUDSON BAY
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
EXPECT CONTINUING VFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF SCT - CLR SKY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WEAK SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL CONTINUEING ON A SCATTERED BASIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, CEILINGS MAY BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE LOW VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY AS WELL.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING MICHIGAN WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT OR LESS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES AWAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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