443
FXUS63 KMKX 250224
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%) REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE CHANCES THEN RETURN
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 923 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SRN WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NRN
WI BY 12Z FRI THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH TNT EVEN AFTER THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AND WITH SOME CLEARING OCCURRING AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND LAST UNTIL 13-15Z FRI.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE IS THEN EXPECTED
AFTER ANY FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATE, WITH MORE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE VIA ONSHORE FLOW.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT A LID ON HEAT CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVER RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WHERE HEAT
INDICES ARE BETWEEN 90 AND 95, AND SKIES HAVE REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
LIMITING ANY REMAINING CONCERNS FOR UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FESTERED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR A REMNANT MCV FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER IOWA. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS
MCV MOVING OVER CENTRAL WI AT THIS TIME, WITH RADAR SHOWING WEAK
SHOWERS AND STORMS POCKMARKING NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BEHIND THE MCV CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE FRONT, THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ANY REMAINING STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN VERY WEAK
CAPE/LAPSE RATES OVER MOST OF THE REGION, STRONG STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT, SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WON'T FEATURE A PARTICULARLY
GREAT PUSH OF DRY AIR BEHIND IT, AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS, FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE'LL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER NORTHERN IL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S, DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, MAKING IT FEEL
MUGGY OUTSIDE.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE STATE. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS, FAVORS A MORE AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION, GIVING RAIN TO MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST CAMS AND THE ECMWF HOWEVER, SHOW ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW OF RAIN AND STORMS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE FRONTAL POSITION BEING DICTATED BY
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON FRIDAY,
WE'LL MONITOR OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE, A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING AS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
THE WARM FRONT FROM SATURDAY WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, USHERING IN A RETURN OF THE HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S, AMID DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 70S. HEAT WILL THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WELL. MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE AND
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL THEN CAUSE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT
IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 923 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING TO AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS DURING EARLY FRI AM ACROSS SRN WI. PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. THE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13-15Z FRI WITH ANY MVFR CIGS OR LOWER TO DISSIPATE
BY 17Z. SCT040 CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE LATE FRI NT INTO SAT.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 923 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FOR EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE EASING WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT, SOME MARINE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1
INCHES WILL THEN BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE, AND NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY. WINDS BRIEFLY COME
AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING ANOTHER WARM FRONT.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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