557
FXUS63 KMKX 251529
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1029 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR THE IL STATE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES (30-50%) LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- HOT AND VERY HUMID SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- INCREASING MCS CHANCES AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE MID
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WI WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF AREA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHERN WI, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED TO AROUND THE STATE LINE
EARLY HIS MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MITIGATE THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THE WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
NORTH, AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE, WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MID DAY HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WEAK SHEAR AND MEDIOCRE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
MICHIGAN.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN USA FOR SUN-TUE THEN RETROGRADE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO SE CANADA AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
KEEP SRN WI ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH MCS
POTENTIAL AT TIMES. THIS WILL END WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN-MON, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO TUE, BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITING
FACTORS.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1020 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
LOW STRATUS DECK BRINGING LIFR/IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER, EASTERLY WINDS ARE HELPING PUSH THE CLOUDS
WESTWARD WITH CLEARING BEHIND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE THESE LOW CEILINGS IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH IN IL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. WILL
SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
LIFTS BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH I-94.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE FRONT, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE BY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHERLY THOUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE, WHERE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
NORTHERLY WINDS.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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