152
FXUS63 KMKX 080304
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1004 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY (TO JUST 15%), THOUGH THE FUEL FOR A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
- HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING MAY BECOME A
CONCERN IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS AFFECT THE SAME AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT OVER 3,000 JOULES OF CAPE IS STILL
PRESENT ALOFT, BUT WITHOUT ANY NOTEWORTHY PERTURBATIONS OR
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION (ASIDE FROM A 500MB
THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD), IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR
STORMS TO FIRE OVERNIGHT (ONLY 15% CHANCES). WE'LL JUST HAVE OUR
EYES ON ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS IN PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY (NEAR SHEBOYGAN) AND ANYWHERE ELSE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WARM
AND HUMID, BUT WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE BREEZE, HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE AT
THE SURFACE TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT. THUS, EXPECT TO SEE THE
CONTINUED TREND OF SCATTERED, PERCOLATING CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IF SOMETHING CAN TAKE OFF AND BECOME SUSTAINED,
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUTFLOW FROM
SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTION.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL
NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 850 MB WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE, SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT SAID, COULDN'T RULE OUT A
COUPLE OF STORMS, AND 20-30 PERCENT POPS REFLECT THIS CHANCE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY DAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IN THE MORNING,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP
OUT AROUND 90, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. A FEW
SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100, BUT NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
FORECAST UNCERTAINLY STARTS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH EACH
DAY'S EVOLUTION DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT DURING THE
PRIOR 12-24 HOURS. AT THIS DISTANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL
MCV WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY ON SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS, POTENTIALLY WITH A DECAYING MCS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK, MAINLY TIED TO HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION IS ABLE TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WITH TIME, ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD CONCERN.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WIGGLE AROUND SOME, AS ITS POSITION IS
MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS MAKES PINPOINTING THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL DIFFICULT, BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MID WEEK. AS TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, HOWEVER.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY AND LOW
LYING AREA FOG LATE TONIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT, CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER 5,000 FT, AND MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED.
ONLY 15% CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT (MAINLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS).
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS (6,000 FT
OR HIGHER) AND UPPER ALTITUDE CLOUDS MAY PASS, WITH CONTINUED
VFR AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS (SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT).
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 KT FRIDAY WITH A
FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5
INCHES DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK TO WINDS
TO GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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