486
FXUS63 KMKX 141411
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF
SEVERAL MILWAUKEE METRO AREA RIVERS AND ADJACENT TRIBUTARIES.
STAY AWAY FROM FLOOD WATERS AND CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING
ROAD CLOSURES IN THESE AREAS.
- AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK,
BUILDING FRIDAY AND PEAKING SATURDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 915 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
WILL LINGER NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF HAZE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
PATCHES OF GROUND FOG AND VALLEY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH DAWN.
SOME OF THESE PATCHES WILL BE DENSE. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER
DAWN, LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD A CLEAR SKIES AND VISIBILITY
THROUGH MID MORNING. WILDFIRE SMOKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY LEADING TO SOME HAZINESS.
THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL GENERALLY HAS NEAR-SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS
THEN LOWERING BY THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AMID LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
OVER MOST OF THE CWA, WITH SOME MID 80S HIGHS NEAR THE BARABOO
HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
THE REGION STABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
FRIDAY, WE'LL GET A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS A WINDS COME
AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN WI. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT HIGHS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AMID DEW POINTS NEAR 70.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT A WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY IT GOES IT STILL UNCERTAIN. THE AXIS OF THE
500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, WITH
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED. A LOW LEVEL JET NOSE SHOULD
SHIFT FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD HELP DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN, PERHAPS
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
ENSEMBLES ARE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 0.50
INCHES OF QPF IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS TREND WILL HOLD OR IF THINGS MAY SHIFT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH, SO KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP
GENERALLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY CAN BE FOUND.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.75
INCHES WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
MOVED THROUGH OVER SATURATED SOIL.
IF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS TO THE NORTH,
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S. THIS WILL DEPEND ON ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURRING AND
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH TRENDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME KEEP IT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
WITH OTHERS TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE LOCATION IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN, AND MAY REMAIN OVER THE AREA, OR FOCUS MORE TO THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN INTERACT WITH IT. WILL MAINTAIN 20 TO 50
PERCENT POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY IS FOUND. AGAIN, SOME
STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IF ORGANIZED
STORMS CAN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING DEFINITIVE AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL, DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION AND CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 915 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
APART FROM SOME LINGERING FG/BR AT SBM, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES HAVE
RETURNED TO ALL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HZ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING NEAR THE HUDSON BAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CURRENTLY
CENTERED ON THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER, LOW PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARD THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT AT ALL AERODROMES.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE LAKE. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST FRIDAY, AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
10 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LAKE AND STALLS SOMEWHERE NEARBY.
CMILLER
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG SEVERAL MILWAUKEE METRO
AREA RIVERS AND THEIR ADJACENT TRIBUTARIES, IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND.
THE FOX RIVER IN WAUKESHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING.
THE MILWAUKEE RIVER AND CEDAR CREEK AT CEDARBURG CONTINUE THEIR
DOWNWARD TREND AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING AND BY MIDDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
THE FOX RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER IS FORECAST TO JUST REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING, AND IS BEING MONITORED WITH A
RIVER FLOOD WATCH.
PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR EACH RIVER SEGMENT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EACH CAN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS WEEK. CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES IN ALL
IMPACTED AREAS UNTIL RIVER STAGES RECEDE FURTHER AND FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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