377  
FXUS63 KMKX 142003  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
303 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT THE LOWER FOX RIVER IN WAUKESHA.  
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER FOX RIVER AT  
NEW MUNSTER. STAY AWAY FROM FLOOD WATERS AND CONTINUE TO HEED  
ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES IN THESE AREAS.  
 
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FROM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS  
AND STORMS FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,  
PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF  
STORMS.  
 
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
 
- DRYING OUT AND BECOMING LESS HUMID BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: LOW PRESSURE IS APPARENT ALONG THE  
SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO  
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, WITH OBSERVATIONS PLACING THE BOUNDARY FROM  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD RAPID CITY, SOUTH DAKOTA. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY DURING  
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, PULLING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL COMBINE  
WITH AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO  
ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE FROM  
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH  
TRACKS BOTH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BEING DEPICTED IN CURRENT  
FORECAST GUIDANCE. SHOULD A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY,  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT & THE CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IF A  
SOUTHEASTERLY STORM EVOLUTION IS REALIZED, STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT. IN THE EVENT STORMS MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,  
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT  
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL RESULT IN  
PATCHES OF HAZE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CURRENT LAKESHORE  
AIR QUALITY READINGS ARE IN THE GOOD TO MODERATE CATEGORIES, THOUGH  
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
FRIDAY EVENING & NIGHT: AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST PREVAILS, PARTICULARLY  
RELATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. EVOLUTION OF THE BROADER PATTERN  
POINTS TO THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH, WITH ACTIVITY  
FOCUSING ON THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. 12Z MESOSCALE AND  
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SAID INITIATION  
WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOW  
ACTIVITY EVOLVES POST-INITIATION IS LIKELY TO DEPEND ON THE  
ORIENTATION OF THE MUCAPE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, WITH AVAILABLE  
GUIDANCE SPLIT BETWEEN AN EAST-WEST VERSUS NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST  
ALIGNMENT. IF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ORIENTATION BECOMES  
FAVORED, PROPAGATION OF STORMS ALONG A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK (AND  
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN) WOULD BECOME A MORE LIKELY  
OUTCOME. HAVE PULLED SLIGHT TO CHANCE (~15-35%) PRECIP PROBABILITIES  
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME. VALUES  
WILL BE REFINED FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS TRENDS CLARIFY.  
IN THE EVENT STORMS TREND INTO THE AREA, 1.5"+ PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES & DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS WOULD TRANSLATE TO AN ENVIRONMENT  
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY HOURLY RAINFALL RATES. SAID RATES WOULD BE  
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS, HOWEVER, THEY  
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK 1-2" OF RAINFALL IN ANY  
DIRECTLY-IMPACTED LOCATIONS. THESE TOTALS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR IF  
ANY HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, BUT COULD LEAD  
TO MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IF FALLING OVER PARTS OF THE MILWAUKEE  
METRO HIT HARD LAST WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY  
WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES &  
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY  
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COMBINATION  
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES & MCV'S FROM PRIOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT TO PROMOTE  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE TO  
THE FORCING MECHANISMS WORKING WITH THE FRONT, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW  
FOR THE PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DAILY STORMS SATURDAY INTO  
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER-CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BEING  
PLACED AS EACH DAY'S FORECAST SETUP CLARIFIES. DESPITE THE  
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF  
STORMS, IT IS CLEAR THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY  
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME  
GIVEN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ENTRENCHED ALONG THE FRONT. THE  
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS & HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST  
MINOR HYDRO IMPACTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE SATURDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD, PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY. THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPART  
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN DRIER  
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL BRING MULTIPLE  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 1.5-2.0" PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES, IN ADDITION TO A LARGE BOUNDARY-PARALLEL COMPONENT TO  
THE BROADER STEERING FLOW, ILLUSTRATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE THAT SAID POTENTIAL  
WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS  
WORKING ALONGSIDE THE FRONT, IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT  
PRECISE LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DAILY  
ROUNDS OF STORMS. HAVE REFLECTED DAILY STORM POTENTIAL WITH  
GENERALLY 30-60% PRECIP PROBS AT THIS POINT, WITH HIGHER  
PROBABILITIES BEING INTRODUCED AS ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS CLARIFY &  
DAILY CORRIDORS OF STORM CHANCES BECOME CLEARER. STAY TUNED TO THE  
FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON SATURDAY,  
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN-  
ILLINOIS STATE LINE.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL AT ALL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TERMINALS  
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HZ/FU ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT LAKE  
MICHIGAN TERMINALS IN THE 18Z UPDATE, WHERE HZ/FU IS MOST LIKELY  
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING NEAR THE  
HUDSON BAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THIS EVENING  
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE MANITOBA-  
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER, LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE WESTERN  
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT AT ALL AERODROMES.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE  
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CURRENTLY POSITIONED  
NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER, 996 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL  
PROGRESS TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD  
FRONT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BOUNDARY  
SLOWING TO A CRAWL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONT IN THE  
VICINITY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW STORMS COULD  
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF LAKE  
MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NEARSHORE ZONES THIS EVENING, WHERE RECENT  
UPWELLING HAS RESULTED IN COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE  
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE  
WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE  
EVENT THAT FOG DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL  
GRADUALLY APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN  
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED  
IN ANY ROUND OF ACTIVITY, THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY  
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST  
INFORMATION IF PLANNING TO TAKE TO THE WATER THIS WEEKEND.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
ONE FLOOD WARNING AND ONE FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THE  
MKE METRO AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST  
WEEKEND.  
 
THE LOWER FOX RIVER AT WAUKESHA REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT  
THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STAGE HEIGHT. IT MAY  
REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THE FOX RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD  
STAGE LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, AND IS BEING MONITORED  
WITH A FLOOD WATCH.  
 
PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR EACH RIVER SEGMENT WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EACH CAN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATER THIS  
WEEK. CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES IN ALL IMPACTED AREAS UNTIL  
RIVER STAGES RECEDE FURTHER AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED TO  
EXPIRE.  
 
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN THIS UPCOMING  
WEEKEND, AND AREA RIVERS (PARTICULARLY IN THE MKE METRO AREA +  
SURROUNDING COUNTIES) WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL RISES.  
 
SHEPPARD  
 
 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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